Strategies
Multi-Asset Same-Venue Extreme-Funding Cash-and-Carry Basket (Long Binance Spot + Short Binance USD-M Perp per Asset, Each Gated on Its OWN Extreme Funding, Delta-Neutral, Continuous-Coverage Reframe of the Validated Single-Asset Carry)
Outcome: Abandoned
MultiAssetSameVenueExtremeFundingCarryBasket8Neutral
Outcome Summary
MultiAssetSameVenueExtremeFundingCarryBasket8Neutral pooled the validated same-venue cash-and-carry across eight Binance majors, each leg gated on its own extreme funding, explicitly to fix the single-asset regime dormancy that had clustered trades in 2020/2021. The edge was real — funding +$72,705 credited, ~+$35k net realized, fully neutral with an 8.5% drawdown — but the reframe failed: 84% of entries still fell in 2020/2021 with none after 2024 because major-coin extreme funding is correlated and mania-bound, leaving recent validation windows empty. The analyst ruled it falsified for the second time and near-redundant with a 5-asset sibling already testing the only remaining lever (funding-data coverage + a lower alt gate), directing any revival there. It ended after one iteration as abandoned, never advancing to optimization or risk review.
Hypothesis
Implementation
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- 5.59
- Total return
- -10.77%
- Max drawdown
- 10.90%
- Trades
- 678
- Win rate
- 50.6%
- Profit factor
- 1.10
Mechanism clears fees and is credited: funding +$72,705 dominates the -$21,532 basis residual (~+$35k net realized), 0 open legs, market-neutral (beta -0.003) — the same-venue cash-and-carry edge is real.
Well-distributed across the 8 assets (ADA 110, SOL/XRP 94, DOGE 90, BNB 84, ETH 80, LINK 78, BTC 48), clean low-tail distribution (skew -0.48), low max_drawdown (8.5%).
Reframe FALSIFIED: 84% of entries in 2020/2021, ZERO in 2022/2025/2026 despite 8 assets — pooling does NOT decorrelate the funding regime; major-coin extreme funding is correlated and confined to bull manias.
Recent holdout/walk-forward windows will be empty (no 2025/2026 trades) — the exact zero-OOS-window failure that abandoned the BTC siblings (0942f308 post-optimization, holdout 0.0).
Near-redundant with the 5-asset sibling (b374fac1) already in an iterate loop testing the only remaining lever (verify funding-data coverage to 2026 + lower threshold on alts) — iterating this duplicate runs the same experiment twice.
Headline total_return -8.34% / end_unrealized -33.9% is the recurring MTM/accounting artifact (judge on realized, which is positive) — not the blocker, but adds noise.
empty recent holdout/WF windows
non-degenerate validation
+$72,705 vs -$21,532 residual
funding dominates
0 trades 2022/2025/2026; 84% in 2020/2021
continuous incl. recent
Outcome Summary
Confirmed across single-asset, 5-asset, and now 8-asset versions: same-venue extreme-funding cash-and-carry clears fees and is genuinely neutral, but the fee-clearing EXTREME gate fires only in 2020/2021-style manias across ALL majors simultaneously, so no basket size produces 2025/2026 trades and the recent holdout is empty regardless — the mechanism belongs on a richer-funding instrument with a lower gate (the promoted ETH spot-perp sibling), not a wider extreme-gated major basket.
It was abandoned at the pre-optimization backtest-review gate (verdict: abandon) because the central reframe was empirically falsified — pooling 8 majors did NOT decorrelate the funding regime (major-coin extreme funding is correlated and confined to bull manias, so all assets spike together and go quiet together), leaving empty recent holdout/walk-forward windows; it was also near-redundant with a 5-asset sibling already iterating on the only remaining fix, so optimization and later stages were never reached.
A market-neutral, multi-instrument same-venue extreme-funding cash-and-carry basket across 8 Binance majors (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, LINK) — for each asset independently, when its own 8h perp funding was extreme (≥0.05%/8h), longing BINANCE_SPOT and shorting an equal-notional BINANCE USD-M perp to harvest the rich funding delta-neutrally — the escalated multi-asset reframe of the validated single-asset carry, pooling assets to cure the single-asset regime dormancy and deliver continuous, validatable coverage.
Across 678 trades (339 spot/perp pairs) well-distributed over the 8 assets, the mechanism cleared fees and was market-neutral (funding +$72,705 vs -$21,532 basis residual, ~+$35k net realized, beta -0.003, max drawdown 8.5%, skew -0.48), but coverage was not continuous: 84% of entries fell in 2020/2021 with ZERO in 2022/2025/2026 (last trade 2024-12); the -8.34% headline / -33.9% end-unrealized is the recurring MTM accounting artifact against positive realized PnL.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.