Spot Force-Index Anomaly Continuation on SNX and CRV Hyperliquid Perps

Hypothesis

Derived by the Research Lead from patmaba’s BreakSearch indicator: test whether exceptional spot price-volume pressure predicts multi-day continuation in the same asset’s perpetual. Source read: [BreakSearch](https://www.prorealcode.com/prorealtime-indicators/breakout-breakout-search-indicator/). The source identifies Force Index excursions outside Bollinger bands; it supplies no trading exits or demonstrated profitability. This operationalization uses synchronized 4-HOUR Binance spot signals and Hyperliquid execution, independently for SNX and CRV. Market orders execute at the signal bar close, the registry’s faithful equivalent to next-bar-open execution on continuous venues. No latency advantage is assumed. Baselines are proposals for sensitivity review, not selected from backtests.

corpus_concentration is empty, so no recent instrument/timeframe percentages can be verified. Avoid BTC and the repeatedly recycled major-coin indicator panels. Snapshot FTS searches found no Force Index/BreakSearch prior art; this is not proof of uniqueness. Hyperliquid is 14.0% versus a 20% target, cross-venue scope 10.1% versus 15%, and long-only is overrepresented at 74.9%. The largest venue deficit is options, but recent option-leg failures make an ordinary linear execution path preferable for this experiment; this does not reject option economics. This is a sparse continuation event, not short-side shock fading or a continuously rebalanced indicator state. The two traded names are an explicitly fixed case-study cohort, not a claim to represent all historically listed DeFi tokens. No pre-study or quick backtest was used to judge the source.

Decline optimization on measured negative after-cost development-period expectancy across 287 closed positions. This rejects the Research Lead’s tested Force Index continuation operationalization, not patmaba’s indicator or every untested parameterization. No conclusion is drawn about the held-back period after 2026-04-09T12:00:00+00:00.

Implementation

Independent SNX and CRV spot Force Index band crossings traded long or short on Hyperliquid perps, with frozen entry ATR intrabar stops and 18-bar time exits. Signal-close market execution is the registered continuous-market equivalent of next-bar-open execution.

Implements population Force Index z-scores including the current observation, consecutive spot bars, exact timestamp alignment and point-in-time listing checks. Wilder perp ATR and 60 completed UTC daily sample log-return volatility determine the specified minimum of risk, notional, volatility and buffer caps. Each position is independent, not a hedge. Time exits continue on each perp bar when spot data are missing; evaluation resets and boundary flattening belong to the runner. All rolling observations and position state are scalar attributes. No backtest or verification was run; the referenced shared code-quality policy file is absent in this checkout.

Backtest Review

Sharpe

-1.06

Total return

-17.82%

Max drawdown

24.95%

Trades

366

Win rate

38.0%

Profit factor

0.79

287 closed positions across 238 distinct entry dates provide a usable development sample.

Both intended instruments and directions traded; 188 positions lasted the intended 72 hours.

Net return -13.59%, Sharpe -0.975 and profit factor 0.795 establish negative measured expectancy.

Mean net trade return -0.805% is below the Hyperliquid 0.15% review floor and contradicts the predicted +0.32% capture.

Both instruments lose: SNX -$7,426.68 and CRV -$6,619.05. Longs lose $14,004.19; shorts lose $41.54, with profit factors 0.599 and 0.999 respectively.

No specific implementation defect or evidence-supported repair is established.

Outcome Summary

A future iteration should establish positive after-cost development-period expectancy before optimization; this rejection applies to the tested operationalization rather than every untested parameterization.

Backtest review abandoned the strategy after one iteration because after-cost development-period expectancy was negative across both instruments, with no evidence-supported repair established. Optimization, analyst review and risk review were not reached; the decision drew no conclusion about the held-back period after 2026-04-09T12:00:00+00:00.

Use exceptional four-hour Binance spot Force Index excursions to predict multi-day directional continuation in SNX and CRV Hyperliquid perpetuals.

The supplied backtest reported a -17.82% net return, -1.056 Sharpe and 366 closed positions. The decisive development-period review separately cited -13.59% net return, -0.975 Sharpe and 287 closed positions, with mean net trade return of -0.805%.