Strategies
Cross-Sectional Relative-Strength Momentum Rotation, Long-Only Perps (10 Liquid BINANCE USD-M Majors — Bi-Weekly Rebalance, Hold Top-4 by 60-Day Relative Strength, Equal-Weight, Absolute-Momentum Cash Filter Sits Out Names in Their Own Downtrend; a Distinct-Cadence Sibling of the Factory's Deployed Sharpe-2.6 Survivor, 3-Parameter)
Outcome: Abandoned
TenMajorPerpsBiWeeklyRelativeStrengthRotationLongTop4
Clean, faithful multi-leg cross-sectional construction on the momentum family (which has a deployed survivor); adequate sample (154 trades); low fee drag (commission 1.13% of gross)
Hypothesis
Implementation
Long-only cross-sectional relative-strength momentum rotation over 10 liquid BINANCE USD-M major perps (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, AVAX, LINK, DOT, LTC) on daily bars, pure OHLCV. Every 14 calendar days the strategy ranks all 10 names by trailing 60-day total return and holds equal-weight LONG the top 4, subject to a two-leg absolute-momentum cash filter: a name qualifies only if its own 60-day return is positive AND its close is above its own trailing 60-day mean; otherwise the slot sits in cash. Each leg is min(25%, 90%/4) = 22.5% of current equity notional at leverage 1.0, so gross exposure is ~90% long and never exceeds equity. Exits are (a) rotation-driven on the bi-weekly grid when a holding leaves the filtered top-4, and (b) a downtrend-break exit evaluated every bar when a holding's close falls below its own 60-day mean. No stop-loss beyond the trend break, no leverage stacking, no supplementary data.
Verification Results
CLEAN RESTART 2026-09-04 — this run's verdict history and learning records were removed and it was restarted from verification. Its previous abandonment came from the pipeline, not from the market: the Layer-2 harness mis-bound @staticmethod helpers (fixed), QA issued terminal performance verdicts on an unoptimized smoke test (removed — QA now judges correctness only), and sandbox timeouts came from backtest-slot starvation (fixed). The hypothesis and the strategy code are unchanged. Verify the code on its merits; performance is decided later by the full backtest and the optimizer.
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- 0.78
- Total return
- 736.42%
- Max drawdown
- 56.38%
- Trades
- 154
- Win rate
- 33.1%
- Profit factor
- 1.25
Clean, faithful multi-leg cross-sectional construction on the momentum family (which has a deployed survivor); adequate sample (154 trades); low fee drag (commission 1.13% of gross)
avg_trade_return_pct above fee floor; positive alpha vs equal-weight basket (0.197)
Hard drawdown fail (L19): max_drawdown 56.4% (CI to 78%) — no strategy at >50% DD survives the promotion floor; a 736% return alongside 56% DD is leverage/beta, not risk-adjusted edge
L36 compounding/leverage artifact: avg_trade_return_pct 13.68% on a majors basket (monthly 2021-02 +111%, 2021 annual +494%) — position size rode the equity curve; return_kurtosis 37, skew 2.4
Edge concentrated in two bull years: 2021 +494% and 2024 +142% carry the entire record; 2022 (-52%), 2023 (-22%), 2025 (-4.3%) and 2026 (-8.9%) are all negative, and the recent regime is negative
Headline inflated by open MTM: end_unrealized_pct 342 (a large share of the +736% is un-exited unrealized, not realized)
Not significant: Sharpe 0.78 with CI [0.096, 1.50] barely off zero; L45 multi-instrument cross-sectional momentum family (0/84 survivors)
Iteration History
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.