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ETH Volatility-Persistence Reverse Call Butterfly: Defined-Risk Weekly Dispersion

Outcome: Coding

Original autonomous research: test whether a recent increase in ETH realized volatility predicts continued terminal dispersion that weekly option prices understate. Sell one lower-strike call, buy two center-strike…

Hypothesis

Original autonomous research: test whether a recent increase in ETH realized volatility predicts continued terminal dispersion that weekly option prices understate. Sell one lower-strike call, buy two center-strike calls, and sell one upper-strike call, all at one expiry with equally spaced strikes. This reverse butterfly earns a credit and benefits from ending outside the central loss region; it is not an unbounded long straddle. Extend RollingOptionsStrategy directly. ETH-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT supplies the untraded……Show moreShow less

Original autonomous research: test whether a recent increase in ETH realized volatility predicts continued terminal dispersion that weekly option prices understate. Sell one lower-strike call, buy two center-strike calls, and sell one upper-strike call, all at one expiry with equally spaced strikes. This reverse butterfly earns a credit and benefits from ending outside the central loss region; it is not an unbounded long straddle. Extend RollingOptionsStrategy directly. ETH-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT supplies the untraded 4-HOUR primary clock; ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID supplies synchronized 4-HOUR signal returns only. Discover historical ETH weekly calls with rolling_options, dte_target=7, offsets -0.08/0/+0.08, then validate actual strike geometry. Every resolved full option id must be appended to instruments/extra_instruments and the persisted execution contract before verification. The listed reference instruments are clocks and signal sources, never substitute trades. Market decisions fill at the signal close, the supported continuous-market equivalent of next-bar-open execution. No hedge-mode, atomic spread fills, selectable same-bar policy, or exchange-hosted protection is required. Use all available overlapping actual option history without an arbitrary lookback cap. Fee assumptions are conservative research budgets, checked against the underlying-notional fee basis in [Deribit Fees](https://support.deribit.com/hc/en-us/articles/25944746248989-Fees).

Combined options account for 4.6% versus the 15% target, the largest venue deficit; this also adds cross-venue inputs and a non-long-only payoff. corpus_concentration is empty, so instrument/timeframe shares are unknown rather than assumed low. ETH is chosen because the existing rolling-chain resolver supports its weekly options; BTC is avoided. Snapshot searches found a long ETH butterfly based on empirical terminal density and a reverse iron condor based on ETH-versus-BTC volatility acceleration. This proposal instead uses the opposite butterfly payoff and ETH own short/long volatility ratio, without an empirical density fit, BTC relative signal, or directional price gate. No preliminary return study was run. The premise is falsifiable: volatility persistence must pay for the central expiry-loss region and all four option units of friction.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.