Strategies
Crowding-Filtered Cross-Sectional Momentum Rotation, Long-Only (BINANCE USD-M, 8 Majors, Weekly Hold Top-3 by Relative Strength BUT SKIP Any Leader Whose Funding Is Extreme-Positive/Over-Crowded — Add a FUNDING Risk-Filter to the DEPLOYED Momentum Winner So It Avoids Buying Leveraged-Long Blowoff Names, 2-Parameter)
Outcome: Abandoned
CrowdingFilteredMomentumRotationLong
Outcome Summary
CrowdingFilteredMomentumRotationLong took the live momentum-rotation winner and bolted on a funding-based crowding filter, hypothesizing that skipping over-leveraged-long leaders would trim the strategy's worst drawdowns. The backtest ran cleanly with 237 trades and a headline +1564% return, but that number was single-regime (2021 +675% carried it) and largely unrealized open-position MTM (end_unrealized 214.9%). Critically, the filter did not deliver its promised tail reduction: the book still ate -58% in 2022 and -39% in 2026, pushing max drawdown to 63.26% — past the 50% hard-abandon floor — while its information ratio of -0.09 showed no alpha over the plain equal-weight benchmark. The analyst abandoned it at backtest-review, judging that optimization could only overfit the 2021 bull rather than fix a structure whose fatal bear drawdown mirrored the deployed winner's beta exposure.
Hypothesis
Implementation
Long-only weekly cross-sectional momentum rotation over 8 deep BINANCE USD-M majors (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/AVAX/LINK/ADA/XRP, 1-DAY bars). Each week it ranks the names by trailing relative strength (return over momentum_lookback days) and holds an equal-weight top-3, BUT excludes any momentum-leader whose current 8h funding exceeds a crowding threshold (over-leveraged long crowd = fragile), substituting the next-ranked non-crowded name. Funding is a pure risk-FILTER, not the return source — the return engine is the momentum premium. Only positive-momentum names are held (defensive in bear regimes). Per-leg funding is read as-of via O(log n) sorted-array lookups precomputed once; all 8 legs are traded through the extra-instrument path in the weekly rebalance routine. 2 core parameters: momentum_lookback and funding_crowd_thresh.
Verification Results
At backtest_review, confirm whether the negative result is window-specific vs. the filter removing the winners; consider abandon if the base rotation has no positive regime on the available window.
The hypothesis's core premise is that this reuses a 'deployed momentum winner (Sharpe 2.6)' and merely trims its tail with a funding filter. The sandbox does NOT reproduce that: total_return -39.93%, Sharpe -1.38 (CI [-2.78, +0.29]), profit_factor 0.15, win_rate 0.30, avg_trade_return_pct -5.6%. This is a genuine directional-edge result (not a code-defect signature — PF is 0.15 not 0.0, |Sharpe| is not >5), so it is the analyst's call at BACKTEST_REVIEW, not a QA block. But the analyst should note the base momentum recipe is NOT a winner on this 1-year window, and the crowding filter (funding_crowd_thresh 0.0003 = 0.03%/8h, a fairly aggressive threshold) may be substituting away the strongest names.
Ensure the full backtest spans multiple years so the rotation produces >=100 trades; do not promote on a sub-100-trade sample regardless of metrics.
Low trade count for a decisive read: total_trades 27 over 362 days. Structural (weekly top-3 rotation), not a bug, but cannot distinguish edge from noise. A full multi-year backtest will raise the count; if still negative there, abandon.
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- 0.78
- Total return
- 1564.40%
- Max drawdown
- 63.26%
- Trades
- 237
- Win rate
- 45.1%
- Profit factor
- 1.28
Funding-as-crowding-filter is a genuinely distinct, L24-sanctioned addition to the proven momentum winner (not a relative-strength re-weight)
Well-sampled (237 trades), funding feed available (16454 events), avg_trade_return_pct 7.4% clears fees
max_drawdown 63.26% (CI high 82%) — far past the 50% hard-abandon floor; the crowding filter did NOT trim the tail as claimed
Single-regime: 2021 +675% carries the +1564% headline; 2022 -58%, 2026 -39% — always-invested long-only crypto beta eats the full bear drawdown
214.9% end_unrealized_pct — much of the headline is un-exited open-position MTM, not realized
information_ratio -0.09 vs its equal-weight-basket benchmark — the filter adds ~no alpha over plain equal-weight momentum
profit_factor 1.28 modest; Sharpe 0.776 with edge concentrated in bull years
Outcome Summary
An entry-side crowding/exclusion filter layered on an always-invested long-only crypto-beta basket cannot manufacture the drawdown protection the structure fundamentally lacks; tail risk driven by directional beta needs a structural hedge or exit rule, not a name-substitution filter.
It was abandoned at backtest-review (verdict: abandon) because the 63.26% drawdown breached the 50% hard-abandon floor and the funding crowding filter demonstrably failed to trim the tail — the book still lost -58% in 2022 and -39% in 2026 — while adding no measurable alpha over plain equal-weight momentum (IR -0.09).
It reused the deployed cross-sectional relative-strength momentum rotation across 8 USD-M majors (weekly equal-weight top-3) and added a funding-based crowding filter that excludes momentum leaders whose 8h funding is extreme-positive, aiming to trim the worst mean-reversion tail while keeping the proven momentum premium.
Over 2,397 days it produced 237 well-sampled trades with a headline +1564% total return, but Sharpe was only 0.776, profit factor 1.28, win rate 45%, and max drawdown 63.26% (CI high 82%); its information ratio versus the equal-weight-basket benchmark was -0.09 and end_unrealized_pct was 214.9%.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.