Momentum- und Carry-Signale in einem kleinen FX-Spotmarkt-Universum testen

# 09_dl_tcn.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # Temporal Convolutional Network - FX Pairs
#
# A temporal convolutional network reads a fixed number of consecutive daily observations for each
# currency pair. A missing daily observation invalidates every lookback window that crosses it. The
# shared sequence runner derives that eligible endpoint grid, primes each validation fold only with
# observable earlier rows, saves epoch checkpoints, and publishes predictions against the same grid.
#
# **Learning objectives**
#
# - Define one sequence-model request without rebuilding windows in the notebook.
# - Inspect the cadence-aware eligibility and checkpoint identities recorded by the runner.
# - Reload fitted weights and pass complete predictions through the shared catalog.
#
# **Book reference**: Chapter 13, Sections 13.2 and 13.4
#
# **Prerequisites**: `02_labels`, `03_financial_features`, and `04_model_based_features`.

# %%
"""Fit and catalog the published TCN FX configuration."""

import json

import polars as pl
import torch

from case_studies.research import (
    ExecutionTier,
    declared_labels,
    open_study,
    plan_models,
    population_supersedes,
    sweep_labels,
)
from utils.modeling import load_configs
from utils.reproducibility import set_global_seeds

# %% tags=["parameters"]
CASE_STUDY_ID = "fx_pairs"
PRIMARY_LABEL = ""
MAX_SYMBOLS = 0
MAX_FOLDS = 0
FORCE_RETRAIN = False
PREDICTION_SPLIT = "validation"
N_EPOCHS = 0
LOOKBACK = 0
BATCH_SIZE = 0
DEVICE = ""
SEED = 42
POPULATION_NAME = ""
SUPERSEDES_POPULATION: str = "3cf95f3b150d"
# The tier is a parameter, not something inferred from whether a reduction happens to be set.
# Inferring it meant a run could be reduced and still open the case study's own artifacts in
# place, which is the production path; a reader under test then wrote where the published run
# writes. WORKSPACE is the other half: a preview has nowhere else to put its results.
EXECUTION_TIER = "canonical"
WORKSPACE: str | None = None

# %% [markdown]
# ## Plan the sequence request
#
# Fold and symbol reductions create a preview. Epochs, lookback length, and batch size are visible
# model overrides: changing any of them creates a different training identity. Planning resolves
# that identity, the eligible validation keys, and every declared epoch checkpoint before any
# training starts.

# %%
set_global_seeds(SEED)
# The reductions are read before the study is opened, because which study to open is decided by
# the tier and the two have to agree: a preview that reduces nothing is a canonical run wearing
# the wrong tier, and a canonical run carrying reductions would publish a narrowed population
# under the canonical name.
REDUCTION_PARAMETERS = {
    "folds": list(range(MAX_FOLDS)) if MAX_FOLDS else None,
    "max_symbols": MAX_SYMBOLS or None,
}
reductions = {key: value for key, value in REDUCTION_PARAMETERS.items() if value is not None}
tier = ExecutionTier(EXECUTION_TIER)
if tier is ExecutionTier.PREVIEW and not reductions:
    raise ValueError("preview execution must declare at least one reduction")
if tier is ExecutionTier.CANONICAL and reductions:
    raise ValueError(f"canonical execution cannot carry reductions: {sorted(reductions)}")
study = open_study(CASE_STUDY_ID, execution_tier=tier, workspace=WORKSPACE or None)

# Which labels this notebook fits is a question for the training menus, not for the sweep list:
# `setup.yaml` says which labels the case study carries, a menu says what to fit for one of them,
# and a sweep label whose menu declares no `deep_learning:` section owes nothing here. The two
# agree in this case study today, so restating the sweep list produced the right answer by
# coincidence and would have kept producing it silently after a menu changed. The order stays
# `setup.yaml`'s rather than `declared_labels`' menu-file order because the population is named
# after its labels and hashed over its members as an ordered list, so re-ordering would give the
# published population a new identity and demand a supersedes for a run that fits the same models.
declared = declared_labels(study, "deep_learning")
labels = (
    [PRIMARY_LABEL]
    if PRIMARY_LABEL
    else [label for label in sweep_labels(study) if label in set(declared)]
)

# A run that fits fewer labels than the menus declare is not the canonical population, and the
# architecture is fixed below, so the label set is the only knob that narrows it. Such a run must
# publish under its own name rather than register a partial snapshot under the canonical one.
if set(labels) != set(declared) and not POPULATION_NAME:
    raise ValueError(
        f"this run fits {len(labels)} of the {len(declared)} declared labels, so it cannot "
        "publish the canonical population; pass POPULATION_NAME to give it its own"
    )

if PREDICTION_SPLIT != "validation":
    raise ValueError("model selection uses validation predictions; holdout runs start from a lock")
if FORCE_RETRAIN:
    raise ValueError("valid checkpoints are reloaded by identity; change the request to refit")

# An empty DEVICE resolves to what the machine has. The runners refuse "cuda" on a host without
# it rather than falling back silently - which is the right contract for a run whose results get
# registered - so a hardcoded "cuda" default made the notebook unrunnable for any reader without
# an NVIDIA card, and unrunnable on a CPU CI runner. Resolving here keeps the refusal for anyone
# who asks for "cuda" explicitly; the resolved value is printed with the rest of the numerics
# below, so a run never leaves it implicit.
device = DEVICE or ("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
overrides = {
    "device": device,
    **({"n_epochs": N_EPOCHS} if N_EPOCHS else {}),
    **({"batch_size": BATCH_SIZE} if BATCH_SIZE else {}),
    **({"lookback": LOOKBACK} if LOOKBACK else {}),
}
ARCHITECTURE = "tcn"
menu = {
    label: [
        config["config_name"]
        for config in load_configs(CASE_STUDY_ID, label, family="deep_learning")
    ]
    for label in labels
}
uncovered = {label: sorted(set(names) - {ARCHITECTURE}) for label, names in menu.items()}
for label, names in menu.items():
    if ARCHITECTURE not in names:
        raise RuntimeError(
            f"{ARCHITECTURE} is not in the configured deep_learning menu for {label}: {names}"
        )

requests = [
    study.model(
        family="deep_learning",
        label=label,
        config_name=ARCHITECTURE,
        execution_tier=tier,
        preview_reductions=reductions,
        overrides=overrides,
    )
    for label in labels
]
plan = plan_models(study, requests=requests)

# This notebook owes one architecture on every configured label. The rest of the family menu is
# named here rather than left implicit, because a population that is short a configured model is
# otherwise indistinguishable from a complete one.
configured = {(label, ARCHITECTURE) for label in labels}
planned = {(member.label, member.config_name) for member in plan.members}
if planned != configured:
    raise RuntimeError(
        f"the plan does not match this notebook's declared coverage; "
        f"missing {sorted(configured - planned)}, unexpected {sorted(planned - configured)}"
    )
specs = {member.label: json.loads(member.spec_json) for member in plan.members}
computations = {label: spec.get("computation", spec) for label, spec in specs.items()}
computation = computations[labels[0]]

print(f"Labels: {', '.join(labels)}")
print(f"Execution tier: {tier.value}")
print(f"Device: {computation['numerics']['device']}")
print(f"Lookback: {computation['preprocessing']['lookback']} consecutive daily observations")
for horizon, values in computations.items():
    print(f"Eligible validation rows, {horizon}: {values['expected_prediction_keys']['n_rows']:,}")
for horizon, names in uncovered.items():
    print(
        f"Configured deep_learning models this notebook does not run, {horizon}: {names or 'none'}"
    )

# %% [markdown]
# ## Inspect the declared checkpoints and gap policy
#
# The resolved request records exact validation keys and the rule that excludes windows crossing a
# missing expected day. Checkpoint values below are training epochs, not IC-selected summaries.

# %%
checkpoint_schedule = pl.DataFrame(computation["checkpoint_schedule"])
input_summary = pl.DataFrame(
    {
        "label": list(computations),
        "gap_policy": [c["preprocessing"]["gap_policy"] for c in computations.values()],
        "validation_folds": [
            c["expected_prediction_keys"]["n_folds"] for c in computations.values()
        ],
        "validation_rows": [c["expected_prediction_keys"]["n_rows"] for c in computations.values()],
        "key_digest": [c["expected_prediction_keys"]["digest"] for c in computations.values()],
    }
)
input_summary
checkpoint_schedule

# %% [markdown]
# ## Record the official population, then fit or reload the TCN
#
# The same resolved request is used by the notebook and direct Python callers. Publication fails if
# any fold is missing, any prediction is non-finite, or the prediction keys differ from eligibility.
#
# `SUPERSEDES_POPULATION` names the population hash this run replaces. A population is the set of
# prediction identities it publishes, so anything that moves a training identity produces a
# different population under the same name, and the registry refuses to write it without being
# told which snapshot it supersedes. That lineage is the only record of which generation is which,
# and what moved the identities here was a change to the family's own source file rather than to
# anything the notebook declares.
#
# `population_supersedes` decides whether the declared hash may be offered. It is offered when the
# name already carries the generation this declaration produced, so a re-run resolves to the
# population it published, and when the declaration names the generation in force, so a refit
# publishes the next one. It is withheld everywhere else - on a reader's clean clone, where
# `run_log/` is gitignored and the registry has no generation at all; under a caller's own
# `POPULATION_NAME`; and in a preview, whose isolated registry holds nothing under this name.

# %% tags=["results"]
if len(plan.expected_prediction_hashes) != checkpoint_schedule.height * len(labels):
    raise RuntimeError("the plan does not cover every declared epoch checkpoint on every label")
population_name = POPULATION_NAME or f"{CASE_STUDY_ID}:{'+'.join(labels)}:tcn"
population = (
    plan.create_population(
        name=population_name,
        supersedes=population_supersedes(
            study, name=population_name, declared=SUPERSEDES_POPULATION
        ),
    )
    if tier is ExecutionTier.CANONICAL
    else None
)

execution = plan.run()
catalog = execution.catalog_rows.sort("label", "checkpoint_value")
if set(catalog.get_column("prediction_hash")) != set(plan.expected_prediction_hashes):
    raise RuntimeError("the published catalog differs from the population planned before fitting")
if catalog.filter(~pl.col("complete")).height:
    raise RuntimeError("partial TCN checkpoints cannot pass to backtesting")
for label in labels:
    published = catalog.filter(pl.col("label") == label).get_column("checkpoint_value").to_list()
    if published != checkpoint_schedule["value"].to_list():
        raise RuntimeError(f"catalog checkpoints for {label} differ from the resolved request")

catalog.select(
    "label",
    "config_name",
    "checkpoint_kind",
    "checkpoint_value",
    "complete",
    "ic_mean",
    "ic_t",
    "training_hash",
    "prediction_hash",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## Reload the fitted state
#
# An identical call validates the saved weights and returns the same prediction identities. The
# comparison with other model families belongs in `12_model_analysis` after every family completes.

# %% tags=["results"]
replayed = plan.run()
if set(replayed.catalog_rows.get_column("prediction_hash")) != set(
    catalog.get_column("prediction_hash")
):
    raise RuntimeError("TCN checkpoint reload changed the prediction population")

if population is not None:
    population.require_complete()
    print(f"Official prediction population: {population.hash}")
else:
    print("Preview sequence checkpoints remain outside official comparisons.")

# %% [markdown]
# ## Key takeaways
#
# - Eligibility is defined by consecutive observations at the declared daily cadence.
# - Validation priming uses earlier observable rows without admitting training targets.
# - Every saved epoch checkpoint remains available to the backtest stage.

```