Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
1,232 documents
This market recap describes a sharp Bitcoin decline following a highly visible political dispute, despite other potentially market-moving events including employment data, ETF collateral acceptance, and a major public listing. Bitcoin fell from the stated…
This weekly derivatives report summarizes futures implied yields and option volatility conditions for Bitcoin and Ether. It describes short dated Bitcoin yields turning positive and flattening toward longer maturities, while Ether’s one month yield remains…
This commentary compares Bitcoin and Ether option volatility smiles, focusing on the relative pricing of out of the money puts. It uses 25 delta risk reversals and volatility smiles at one and three month maturities to show that Ether puts carry higher…
This weekly commentary interprets Bitcoin options activity around the first tests of $50,000 and the subsequent move higher. It tracks put skew, implied volatility, term structure, and trades across expiries and strikes to infer how traders were hedging,…
This article argues that crypto market stress can create temporary dislocations because many venues lack the trading halts common in traditional markets. It uses the 1987 US market crash and Bitcoin’s May 2021 decline as context, then describes several…
This weekly recap examines Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives during a macro-linked spot volatility episode. The report describes an inversion of both assets’ implied volatility term structures, with Bitcoin’s front-end volatility subsequently falling below…
This weekly market recap describes how a crypto sell-off affected derivatives pricing in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Short-dated volatility smiles shifted toward out-of-the-money puts, signaling increased demand for downside protection, while at-the-money implied…
This trade note outlines a bullish Bitcoin options position built from three call strikes expiring August 9, 2024. It buys one $70,000 call, sells two $72,000 calls, and buys one $74,000 call. The structure has a stated debit of $134 per BTC and a maximum…
This podcast description summarizes a discussion of Bitcoin and Ether market behavior amid bond-market moves and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. It says Bitcoin approached a new high before rejecting it, institutional buying slowed, and…
This weekly market recap interprets Bitcoin and Ether derivatives alongside a spot-price rebound. It tracks futures-implied yields, perpetual swap funding, at-the-money implied volatility, and 25-delta risk reversals. The report describes rising futures…
This weekly snapshot reviews Bitcoin and Ether futures yields, perpetual funding, options implied volatility, volatility surfaces, and put-call skew. It reports that annualized futures yields for both assets were near zero, while perpetual contracts traded…
This educational article explains vertical call and put spreads as directional options positions with bounded risk and reward. A bull call spread buys a lower-strike call and sells a higher-strike call, paying a net debit; a bear call spread reverses those…
This market commentary combines technical, flow, and derivatives observations to argue that Bitcoin may remain range-bound through year-end. It cites weakening momentum in the relative strength indicator, slowing Tether issuance, and Bitcoin’s failure to…
This trade note presents a bullish Bitcoin options position, arguing that limited pullbacks after resistance breaks suggest the short-term uptrend may continue. It describes buying a call at a lower strike and selling a call at a higher strike with the same…
The commentary describes a crypto market with range-bound prices, stable realized volatility, and implied volatility still above realized volatility. That relationship leaves positive volatility carry, though the spread is compressing. The author interprets…
This commentary explains two SABR calibration parameters as tools for interpreting BTC and ETH option smiles. Volatility of volatility describes how strongly the smile steepens, raising the relative price of options far out of the money compared with…
The commentary examines a Bitcoin rebound alongside changing volatility and options positioning. It reports that realized volatility fell as earlier price swings left the measurement window, while front-end implied volatility rose during a breakout. The gap…
The commentary links a sharp crypto correction to crowded Bitcoin perpetual futures positioning and describes how liquidations affected realized volatility, implied volatility, term structure, and option skew. It reports increased front-end downside…
This podcast synopsis previews a discussion of the crypto market outlook with Raoul Pal and Michaël van de Poppe. The guests consider why crypto has not rallied alongside favorable macro developments, including central-bank rate cuts and Chinese stimulus,…
This trade example uses a bear call spread to express a moderately bearish view on Bitcoin after a rally to new highs. The position sells a March 17, 2024 call at 72,500 and buys a call at 74,000, collecting a stated net credit of $150 per BTC. The setup is…
The article considers how to position Bitcoin options around the expected U.S. spot ETF decision in January 2024. Its thesis is that prior SEC feedback and revised applications made rejection seem less likely, while traders appeared to price a roughly 11%…
This overview describes how decentralized finance protocols use token rewards, interest, staking, and fee sharing to attract users and liquidity. It presents total value locked as a commonly used measure of DeFi activity, then discusses how COMP rewards…
This tutorial explains how an options buyer can use dynamic delta hedging to capture gains from price movement while managing the option’s changing directional exposure. It begins with the practical cost of wide cryptocurrency option spreads, especially for…
The article builds a bullish crypto market thesis from a set of contemporaneous signals: easier expected U.S. monetary conditions, improving macro data, ETF-related announcements, rising stablecoin issuance, and technical indicators. It argues that Bitcoin’s…