Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
4,510 documents
The commentary examines changes in ETH options implied volatility smiles after the FTX collapse, focusing on how skew toward out-of-the-money puts differs across maturities. It uses SABR-calibrated smiles and the SABR rho parameter to describe the direction…
This podcast description outlines an interview about the institutional crypto landscape. Matt Hougan presents a valuation argument in which Bitcoin could reach one million dollars if it captures 17% of a growing global store-of-value market. The episode also…
This market note reviews subdued BTC and ETH prices ahead of an anticipated spot Ether ETF launch. It relates price weakness to macro signals, BTC miner and holder selling, and uncertainty about ETF inflows. The options discussion describes softer implied…
This market commentary combines macro context with crypto options indicators to argue that Bitcoin may outperform Ether in a broader-market rally. It discusses realized and implied volatility, the volatility risk premium, term structure, risk reversals,…
The document connects optimism around spot Ether ETF approval with a directional options trade. It describes buying a call at a lower strike and selling a call at a higher strike with the same expiry, creating a net-debit bull call spread. The example uses…
This commentary compares Bitcoin and Ether options using at-the-money implied volatility across maturities, realized volatility, and one-month risk reversals. At the September 2023 snapshot, ETH implied volatility was reported below BTC’s throughout the…
This weekly market commentary tracks Bitcoin and Ether options around the Federal Reserve meeting and US employment report. It describes implied volatility falling after the expected rate increase and Powell’s hawkish remarks, alongside selling in Bitcoin…
This weekly options-flow commentary describes how Bitcoin and Ether options behaved during a volatile period in spot markets. It says the initial implied-volatility jump faded as options activity remained orderly, even while leveraged or delta-one markets…
This market commentary compares Bitcoin and Ethereum futures-implied yields to spot prices and options risk reversals around the period following the Beacon Chain staked-ETH unlock. It reports that ETH futures yields had generally been below BTC’s during…
This essay applies Soros’s reflexivity and Girard’s mimetic theory to explain how beliefs, desires, and prices can reinforce one another. It distinguishes observable claims from reflexive claims whose truth is harder to establish, then argues that prices and…
The article examines speculative valuations among crypto-related public companies, using Circle’s rapid share-price rise, high valuation multiple, Bitcoin treasury firms trading above net asset value, and Coinbase’s recent gain as examples. It frames these…
This market note traces Bitcoin options activity through a sequence of sharp price moves linked to global uncertainty and tariff headlines. Put buying preceded a decline, then mixed flows and falling implied volatility accompanied a rebound. The note…
The article reviews Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility and options positioning around a rebound in Bitcoin and upcoming political and inflation events. It describes a short-term rise in implied volatility after a spot decline, while realized volatility was…
This weekly report surveys crypto derivatives as BTC and ETH rebounded and bearish positioning eased. It summarizes short-tenor volatility skew, perpetual funding, futures-implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility, and option risk reversals.…
This market commentary reviews crypto prices and derivatives positioning during a relatively orderly, range-bound period. It reports that realized volatility fell for BTC and ETH, while implied volatility declined across much of the curve; front-end…
The commentary compares falling BTC and ETH volatility with sustained demand for leveraged long exposure. Implied volatility has reached new lows across maturities as realized volatility declines, yet perpetual swap funding has remained positive since late…
This weekly market commentary interprets BTC and ETH derivatives indicators during a rebound after a holiday lull and a burst of geopolitical volatility. It tracks implied volatility, perpetual funding, futures yields, risk reversals, ETF flows, and an…
This market commentary recounts option activity around a CPI-driven rally, a subsequent reversal, and optimism about the timing of Ethereum ETF approvals. It describes call buying across Bitcoin expiries during the initial bounce, followed by call unwinds,…
The commentary describes crypto prices as rangebound and directionless after Bitcoin rebounded from a recent low. It links Bitcoin’s recent movement partly to equities, discussing rate expectations after Federal Reserve minutes and geopolitical tensions as…
The article reviews a period of weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside rising realized volatility. It notes that Bitcoin has often struggled in September, while broader equity-market pressure and election uncertainty are cited as possible influences on…
This podcast outline introduces crypto fund manager Tara Mac Aulay and describes her path from early Bitcoin use to running a market-neutral fund. The episode contrasts the host’s bullish macro view with Mac Aulay’s concern that the market may be…
This podcast episode outline frames Bitcoin’s approach toward prior highs in the week before the US election. Its brief market discussion notes that call skew was less pronounced than the hosts would normally expect during a potential breakout. The episode…
The essay examines how crypto’s growing engagement with established political and financial institutions may challenge its origins as a movement built around separation from them. It uses a US infrastructure bill debate, El Salvador’s Bitcoin law, a proposed…
The article links Bitcoin’s value to adoption and investor confidence, arguing that rising prices can attract participants and strengthen the conditions supporting further gains. The same feedback can work in reverse, producing sharp swings. It suggests that…