Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
4,510 documents
This options-flow note tracks large ETH call purchases during US-Iran negotiations, followed by BTC put buying after the talks failed to produce progress and prices declined. It lists several ETH call trades by expiry, strike, premium, and notional value,…
This market commentary describes a quiet weekend in crypto after a turbulent period, noting a narrow Bitcoin trading range and low realized volatility. It also observes that trading volumes remained relatively strong and appeared to be shifting from…
The article explains how macro uncertainty and crypto’s changing relationship with equities can inform options positioning. It discusses BTC and ETH performance during the 2020 pandemic period, correlations with the S&P 500, and the possibility that…
This weekly market recap surveys BTC and ETH futures yields, perpetual swap funding, and options volatility and skew. It describes positive futures-implied yields and funding rates, which indicate that traders were paying to maintain long exposure. Implied…
The article reviews Bitcoin’s relative resilience during renewed Middle East tensions alongside caution in BTC and ETH options markets. It notes that BTC briefly fell and recovered, while short-dated puts became more sought after and implied volatility…
This commentary compares Bitcoin and Ether option smile skew after news of a Bitcoin spot ETF application. Both markets continued to price out-of-the-money puts at higher implied volatility than similarly distant calls, but Bitcoin’s call-put volatility gap…
This weekly market recap reviews Bitcoin and Ether price action alongside derivatives indicators. It reports a strong Bitcoin rally during April, supported in the article’s account by ongoing spot ETF inflows and optimism about US legislation. Both assets’…
This weekly market review compares Bitcoin and Ether futures, perpetual funding, and options conditions. It tracks implied volatility term structures and 25-delta risk reversals, alongside annualized futures yields and perpetual funding rates. The report…
This weekly overview describes Bitcoin and Ether derivatives after a September 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut. It reports that spot prices and derivatives sentiment strengthened, while futures implied yields, which had been elevated at shorter maturities and…
The commentary examines Bitcoin derivatives around a report that the SEC might delay spot ETF approval. It describes how the rumor circulated amid elevated leverage, funding, and positive sentiment, alongside a sharp Bitcoin decline. The author says bullish…
The article examines how Bitcoin’s identity depends on informal agreement about core values, since no central authority can settle disputes. It uses a questionnaire of the author’s Twitter followers, asking which changes might make them reject Bitcoin. The…
This weekly market note describes cautious options positioning amid a rebound in equity indexes and stable crypto spot prices. It points to firm implied volatility, elevated put skew, low trading volume, and continued demand for risk protection. Earlier put…
This commentary tracks how BTC options pricing shifted from a preference for downside protection toward a more balanced volatility smile. It compares SABR-calibrated implied volatility across strikes and tenors, noting that earlier smile flattening came from…
This weekly report compares Bitcoin and Ether derivatives conditions during a strong spot-market recovery. It tracks perpetual swap funding, futures implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility term structures, and 25-delta risk reversals. The report says…
This market commentary uses BTC options flow to assess positioning during a period of weakness across risk assets. Although Bitcoin held up relatively well in spot trading, the author says options activity leaned defensive: put buying continued during price…
The article reviews Bitcoin’s rebound after a weekend selloff linked to geopolitical tensions, then examines how crypto options markets responded. It describes a rise in realized volatility, front-end BTC volatility finding support, and weekend price swings…
This weekly review links crypto prices and derivatives positioning to changing expectations for central-bank policy. It describes a rebound in BTC and broader crypto prices alongside improving futures premiums and a shift in far-dated options skew toward…
The article frames trading and investing as overlapping categories assessed mainly by motive and duration. It contrasts decisions based on expected asset-price changes with decisions grounded in the long-term economics or growth of a business or protocol.…
The note describes a large, long-inactive Bitcoin address transferring 80,009 BTC to Galaxy, which then moved at least 70,000 BTC to exchanges. The author treats this as a possible sale overhang. Perpetual futures funding briefly turned negative, triggering…
This market commentary links a hawkish shift in central bank guidance to lower crypto volatility and describes a long-volatility view, with a preference for longer-dated Ether call options. It highlights a mismatch between the Fed’s projected rates and the…
This essay explains how prediction markets translate traders’ beliefs about real-world events into contract prices, and why those prices can aggregate dispersed information. It distinguishes the value of predictions to observers from the incentives that…
This weekly crypto derivatives recap compares BTC and ETH conditions using implied volatility, option skew, and a Risk Appetite Index. BTC is described as consolidating above $80,000 while its options skew remains short of a bullish tilt. Seven-day BTC…
This trade note proposes a BTC call ratio spread based on a bullish market view and the possibility of a rally toward resistance near $74,000. The structure buys one May 31 call at a $72,000 strike and sells two calls at $74,000, for a stated net debit of…
This podcast description outlines a discussion of rising crypto prices ahead of the April Bitcoin halving. The speakers consider profit-taking risk, persistent demand and supply dynamics, continued corporate BTC purchases, possible additions of Bitcoin to…