Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
The document introduces average true range (ATR) as a measure of price movement and explains how its level may reflect changing market conditions. It associates unusually high ATR with panic and possible turning points, and low ATR with consolidation or…
The document presents an FMZ teaching strategy that adds positions at successive price levels spaced by multiples of ATR. It builds short positions when price rises through upper levels and long positions when price falls through lower levels, increasing the…
The document presents three rule-based trading templates and frames them as distinct ways to reason about markets: summarizing past prices, applying explicit intraday rules, and interpreting market positioning or expectations. The first template combines a…
The document explains Shannon’s Demon, a portfolio strategy that repeatedly rebalances between cash and a volatile asset. In a simplified random walk, the strategy can gain from price fluctuations even when the asset has no positive expected return. The…
This article introduces market noise as a way to describe how directly prices travel between two points. It outlines several measures: an efficiency ratio comparing net price change with the sum of intervening moves, price density based on the range and…
The document outlines three rule-based trading templates and frames them as stages of analysis: summarizing past prices, applying trading rules, and interpreting market positioning. The periodic model combines a moving average, a prior-high or prior-low…
The article describes a risk-parity strategy for a basket of tokenized traditional assets and BTC: an equity index proxy, gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin. Rather than assigning equal capital, it seeks roughly equal risk contributions, accounting for both asset…
The article develops a probability-based framework for BTC 15-minute Up/Down contracts. It treats the target as the conditional probability of settling above the round’s official reference price, then compares that estimate with executable contract prices…
The document introduces Shannon’s Demon, a portfolio rebalancing method that holds equal values in a risky asset and cash, then restores that balance after the asset price changes. The strategy aims to capture gains from price fluctuations even when the…
The document presents a framework for estimating the probability that Bitcoin will finish above a round’s benchmark, conditional on its current price distance, time remaining, volatility, and recent drift. It separates this forecast from Polymarket prices,…
The document describes a percentage-based grid strategy for a volatile Pre-IPO derivative. It divides a price range into levels, placing buys below and sells above, and proposes moving the range after a breakout. The described implementation can trade long,…
The document introduces FMZ’s data exploration module, which combines market datasets with SQL queries and charting. Users can inspect available OHLC and tick tables, preview fields, upload limited CSV datasets, and query with editable parameters. Saved…
The document presents a contract-selection process for directional crypto option trades across Deribit, Binance Options, and OKX. It standardizes contract prices, forwards, Greeks, implied volatility, and liquidity data before comparing candidates. Four…
This market commentary interprets reported Bitcoin options activity across several expiries and strike ranges. It describes aggressive call selling early in the week, followed by put purchases as the underlying fell through a cited price level. Some put…
This weekly analytics recap tracks sentiment in BTC and ETH through perpetual funding, futures yields, options volatility, and volatility smile skew. It characterizes both assets as broadly bullish: perpetual funding remained positive, implied futures yields…
This market recap interprets BTC and ETH derivatives positioning around a hotter-than-expected CPI release and ongoing regulatory concerns. Although the initial price dip was quickly bought and prices remained near pre-release levels, block sellers of…
This brief options-flow note describes traders concentrating on Bitcoin puts amid rising implied volatility. It highlights a large in-the-money put sale at the June and July $25,000 strikes that did not slow the volatility increase, alongside a trader who…
This brief options flow note describes Bitcoin positioning before and after a Federal Reserve meeting. It reports early risk-off activity followed by purchases of call spreads and outright calls at higher strikes, alongside the sale of existing March calls.…
This market note examines a sharp Bitcoin rally and the accompanying changes in realized and implied volatility, term structures, skew, option flows, and dealer gamma for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It connects traders’ expectations to a possible Bitcoin ETF…
This market commentary traces Bitcoin and Ethereum options activity around a sharp change in sentiment. It describes large March Bitcoin calls being sold and redistributed, early bearish positioning through puts, and a turn toward calls after a favorable…
This podcast synopsis reviews a sharp market selloff and explores its connection to an unwind of the yen carry trade. The hosts discuss Japan’s macroeconomic backdrop, global spillovers, US economic data, volatility spikes, and possible changes in rates and…
This weekly snapshot summarizes Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives conditions using implied volatility term structures, 25-delta risk reversals, futures yields, perpetual funding, and exchange-level volatility surfaces. Its central observation is that options…
This podcast synopsis outlines a discussion of Bitcoin’s relative stability during a period of geopolitical tension and a quiet summer market. The hosts connect the market backdrop to low inflation and ongoing ETF inflows, and consider whether traders are…
This market commentary traces Bitcoin options positioning around resistance near 25,000 and a subsequent decline. It describes funds buying calls while other funds sold at-the-money straddles and strangles, seeking to earn theta and volatility decay while…