Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
This weekly market commentary tracks Bitcoin and Ether options around the Federal Reserve meeting and US employment report. It describes implied volatility falling after the expected rate increase and Powell’s hawkish remarks, alongside selling in Bitcoin…
The article estimates how a US spot Bitcoin ETF could affect Bitcoin prices by comparing possible flows with the market capitalization of existing gold ETFs. It proposes that a portion of gold ETF holdings could move into Bitcoin, then uses changes in…
This trade note proposes a Bitcoin bull put spread for a market view in which price pauses or bounces near a support area. The structure sells a put at the higher strike and buys a put at a lower strike with the same expiry. The example uses June options…
This weekly options-flow commentary describes how Bitcoin and Ether options behaved during a volatile period in spot markets. It says the initial implied-volatility jump faded as options activity remained orderly, even while leveraged or delta-one markets…
This weekly report surveys Bitcoin and Ether derivatives conditions through perpetual funding rates, futures-implied yields, implied volatility, and options skew. It describes Bitcoin volatility as low with a steep term structure and short-dated risk…
This weekly market commentary reviews subdued realized volatility in Bitcoin and Ether and considers how options traders might respond. It notes that short-dated options had cheapened as realized moves eased, while the front of the volatility curve sat below…
This weekly flow note describes strong demand for Bitcoin calls following the opening day of IBIT options trading. It reports strategic buyers rolling existing midterm calls toward higher strikes and later expiries, alongside additional call purchases and…
This market commentary reviews bullish ETH option positioning ahead of the anticipated Merge. It describes several structures: straddles, longer-dated calls, call spreads, and a December call fly centered on a target price. The discussion compares their…
This podcast listing previews a discussion of crypto markets amid bond-market uncertainty and tariff concerns. The hosts and guest are described as covering Bitcoin’s resilience near an all-time high, muted volatility as a possible source of trading…
This essay applies Soros’s reflexivity and Girard’s mimetic theory to explain how beliefs, desires, and prices can reinforce one another. It distinguishes observable claims from reflexive claims whose truth is harder to establish, then argues that prices and…
This market note traces Bitcoin options activity through a sequence of sharp price moves linked to global uncertainty and tariff headlines. Put buying preceded a decline, then mixed flows and falling implied volatility accompanied a rebound. The note…
The article connects Bitcoin’s post-halving rebound with changes in realized and implied volatility across Bitcoin and Ethereum. It reports that realized volatility was rolling over, short-dated implied volatility had eased, and both term structures had…
The article reviews Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility and options positioning around a rebound in Bitcoin and upcoming political and inflation events. It describes a short-term rise in implied volatility after a spot decline, while realized volatility was…
This weekly report surveys crypto derivatives as BTC and ETH rebounded and bearish positioning eased. It summarizes short-tenor volatility skew, perpetual funding, futures-implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility, and option risk reversals.…
This desk commentary examines BTC and ETH derivatives after a sharp rally and a subsequent pause in spot prices. The initial move lifted short-dated implied volatility and inverted the volatility term structure, a pattern the author associates with a range…
This market commentary reviews crypto prices and derivatives positioning during a relatively orderly, range-bound period. It reports that realized volatility fell for BTC and ETH, while implied volatility declined across much of the curve; front-end…
The commentary compares falling BTC and ETH volatility with sustained demand for leveraged long exposure. Implied volatility has reached new lows across maturities as realized volatility declines, yet perpetual swap funding has remained positive since late…
This commentary reviews BTC and ETH options after a sharp selloff and volatility spike. It compares the surge in short-dated at-the-money implied volatility and downside risk reversals with their subsequent retreat, then discusses how downside skew remained…
This weekly market commentary interprets BTC and ETH derivatives indicators during a rebound after a holiday lull and a burst of geopolitical volatility. It tracks implied volatility, perpetual funding, futures yields, risk reversals, ETF flows, and an…
This market commentary recounts option activity around a CPI-driven rally, a subsequent reversal, and optimism about the timing of Ethereum ETF approvals. It describes call buying across Bitcoin expiries during the initial bounce, followed by call unwinds,…
The document presents a bullish ETH options setup based on a sideways daily chart, repeated tests of support near $2,860, a prior move to $4,080, and optimism around Ethereum ETF approvals. The proposed bull call spread buys the November 8, 2024 $4,000 call…
This report examines whether increases in Bitcoin mining difficulty coincide with changes in options pricing. It proposes that miners facing tighter margins may sell out-of-the-money calls to raise near-term income. The report uses the SABR smile’s Rho…
The commentary compares rolling 90-day realised volatility across major crypto-assets, smaller tokens and traditional market benchmarks, then examines how changes in volatility move together. It reports unusually low realised volatility across most assets…
The article interprets BTC and ETH options positioning during a market pullback ahead of a Federal Reserve speech. It links BTC’s decline, negative perpetual funding, and traders’ de-risking to a shift toward put premium. The reported flow includes demand…