配偶者保護型トンチンの取崩しをニューラルネットワークで最適化

# Spouse-Protected Tontines: Household Decumulation via Neural-Network Optimization


# Spouse-Protected Tontines: Household Decumulation via Neural-Network Optimization









We develop a spouse-protected tontine in which a first death changes the household state but generates no pool transfer. The same account remains attached to the household contract until extinction and funds a spouse-only continuation phase if the retiree dies first. We derive contract-level actuarial-fairness conditions and a finite-pool mortality-credit allocation rule with exact ex post budget balance. Under a homogeneous large-pool approximation, we formulate a multidimensional decumulation problem for a representative household, with withdrawal and rebalancing controls while the retiree is alive. The objective balances expected cumulative real household payments against the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of terminal shortfalls relative to household reserve targets, without conditioning on survival to the horizon. We develop a numerical solution method for this problem based on a global-in-time neural-network parameterization of admissible control policies. We quantify policy-induced spouse-continuation costs using expected-cost and risk-loaded payment-scale loads at both representative-contract and book levels. We characterize the large-book limit of average per-contract continuation cost as the expected representative-contract cost conditional on common market information. Numerical experiments calibrated to Australia show that the spouse-only phase is a first-order and persistent household event. In these experiments, book-level diversification removes most of the representative-contract excess upper-tail cost of spouse continuation in the large-book limit, without changing expected per-contract continuation cost. A cross-country mortality comparison indicates that the prevalence and persistence of the spouse-only phase are not specific to Australia.