Construção de um pipeline auditável de previsões multiagente

# 08_forecasting_pipeline.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # Full Forecasting Pipeline
#
# **Docker image**: `ml4t`
#
# The last four notebooks each built one piece. This one runs them as a sequence: a panel of
# research agents, an aggregate over them, a debate between two sides of the aggregate, and a
# supervisor that reads the panel, searches where the agents disagreed, and decides whether to
# override. That is the **AIA Forecaster** architecture, and the point of assembling it is not
# that four stages beat one; it is that a forecast produced this way can be taken apart when it
# is wrong.
#
# Both questions the pipeline runs on were unresolved when the capture was taken. It produces
# probabilities and cannot be scored, and neither can any claim that a later stage improved on
# an earlier one. Scoring against known outcomes is
# [`09_evaluation_and_governance`](09_evaluation_and_governance.ipynb).
#
# **Learning Objectives**:
# - Build a supervisor that finds where a panel disagreed, searches on those points, and
#   returns its own probability
# - Gate that supervisor's influence on the confidence it states, so it can adjust the ensemble
#   without silently replacing it
# - Compose four stages into one class whose settings are all declared in one place
# - Read a stage-by-stage probability path and see which stage moved the answer
# - Record a run in a form a scoring pipeline could later consume
#
# **Book Reference**: Chapter 24, Sections 24.7 (Multi-agent forecasting systems) and 24.9
# (Preparing for production)
#
# **Prerequisites**: [`04_research_agent`](04_research_agent.ipynb),
# [`05_aggregation_math`](05_aggregation_math.ipynb),
# [`06_multi_agent_research`](06_multi_agent_research.ipynb),
# [`07_adversarial_debate`](07_adversarial_debate.ipynb).

# %%
"""Full Forecasting Pipeline: agent-debate-supervisor end-to-end."""

import json
import textwrap
import time
from datetime import date, datetime

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import polars as pl
from agent_fixtures import get_chapter_clear_question, get_chapter_contested_question
from agent_observability import (
    TRACES_DIR,
    RunTrace,
    show_agents,
    show_debate_transcript,
    show_supervisor,
    trace_llm,
)
from agent_pipeline import neyman_extremize
from agent_providers import ChatMessage, TokenUsage, create_llm_client
from agent_research import ResearchAgent, format_agent_summary, parse_json
from agent_schemas import (
    AgentForecastArtifact,
    ForecastQuestion,
    ForecastResult,
    SearchResult,
    SupervisorArtifact,
)
from agent_specialists import DebateAgent
from agent_tools import (
    SearchClient,
    ToolExecutor,
    create_search_client,
)
from IPython.display import Markdown, display

from utils.style import COLORS, add_message_title, show_with_alt

# %% [markdown]
# ## Settings
#
# `RUN_LIVE` left at `False` replays the two pinned captures, one per question, and makes no
# API calls.
#
# `N_AGENTS`, `MAX_STEPS` and `MAX_SEARCH_RESULTS` configure the research phase exactly as in
# [`06_multi_agent_research`](06_multi_agent_research.ipynb). `DEBATE_ROUNDS` caps the
# argument, and `NEYMAN_CORRELATION` is the pairwise correlation assumed when the panel is
# aggregated.
#
# Three weights decide how much each later stage can move the answer, and they are the numbers
# to argue with - on a live run. `DEBATE_WEIGHT` is the debate midpoint's share of the
# post-debate probability. `SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT` is the supervisor's share when it states
# medium confidence; at high confidence it replaces the value outright and at low confidence it
# is ignored. A replay reports the probabilities its capture recorded, so changing either weight
# with `RUN_LIVE` left at `False` changes nothing: the run that produced the numbers is over.
#
# The three `CONFIDENCE_WHEN_*` values are what the pipeline reports as its own confidence in
# each of those three cases. They are an ordering, not an estimate: a forecast the supervisor
# overrode is marked as having had more reconciliation than one where it was ignored, and
# nothing here measures whether either is more likely to be right.

# %% tags=["parameters"]
RUN_LIVE = False
PINNED_TRACES = [
    "08_forecasting_pipeline_20260609T141954Z_ef5bca7b95bd.json",  # recession (clear)
    "08_forecasting_pipeline_20260609T142158Z_24e083e7fe54.json",  # rate hike (contested)
]
LLM_PROVIDER = ""
N_AGENTS = 3
DEBATE_ROUNDS = 3
MAX_STEPS = 5
MAX_SEARCH_RESULTS = 5
NEYMAN_CORRELATION = 0.3
DEBATE_WEIGHT = 0.3
SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT = 0.4
CONFIDENCE_WHEN_OVERRIDDEN = 0.8
CONFIDENCE_WHEN_BLENDED = 0.6
CONFIDENCE_WHEN_IGNORED = 0.5

# %% [markdown]
# ## Supervisor Prompts
#
# The supervisor operates in two phases:
# 1. **Identify disagreements** among agents and propose clarifying searches
# 2. **Finalize** with updated probability, incorporating new evidence
#
# These prompts are shown inline from the AIA Forecaster's production templates.

# %%
SUPERVISOR_DISAGREEMENTS_PROMPT = """\
You are the SUPERVISOR agent.

You receive M agent forecasts and rationales for the same question.
Your job is NOT to average them directly.

Step 1: Identify key disagreements, ambiguities, missing base rates, or claims that should be fact-checked.
Step 2: Propose up to {max_queries} clarifying search queries that would resolve these disagreements.

Output JSON only with:
{{"disagreements": ["..."], "queries": ["..."]}}

AGENT INPUTS:
{agent_summaries}"""

# %% [markdown]
# The finalize prompt receives the original question, agent panel, and bounded
# follow-up evidence. It requests a probability, confidence label, and rationale.

# %%
SUPERVISOR_FINALIZE_PROMPT = """\
You are the SUPERVISOR agent.

Given:
1) The original question
2) The set of agent forecasts and rationales
3) Additional evidence from your follow-up searches

You must output:
1) Updated forecast p_yes in [0,1]
2) Confidence in whether your update direction is correct: "high" | "medium" | "low"
3) A short rationale

Output JSON only:
{{"p_yes": 0.0, "confidence": "high", "rationale": "..."}}

QUESTION:
{question}

AGENT INPUTS:
{agent_summaries}

SUPERVISOR SEARCH EVIDENCE:
{supervisor_evidence}"""


# %% [markdown]
# ## Supervisor phase helpers
#
# The supervisor's three phases (identify, search, finalize) factor
# naturally into free functions. The class then becomes a thin shell that
# owns the LLM + search clients and threads them through the helpers.


# %%
def _supervisor_identify_disagreements(
    llm,
    agent_summaries: str,
    max_queries: int,
) -> tuple[list[str], list[str], TokenUsage]:
    """Phase 1: LLM call asking for disagreements and clarifying queries."""
    prompt = SUPERVISOR_DISAGREEMENTS_PROMPT.format(
        max_queries=max_queries, agent_summaries=agent_summaries
    )
    raw, tokens = llm.complete_with_usage(
        [ChatMessage(role="user", content=prompt)], json_mode=True
    )
    parsed = parse_json(raw)
    disagreements = [str(x) for x in parsed.get("disagreements", [])][:20]
    queries = [str(x) for x in parsed.get("queries", [])][:max_queries]
    return disagreements, queries, tokens


# %% [markdown]
# The search phase executes only the supervisor's bounded query list and
# applies the question's point-in-time cutoff to every request.


# %%
def _supervisor_run_searches(
    search,
    queries: list[str],
    max_search_results: int,
    cutoff_date: date | None,
) -> dict[str, list[SearchResult]]:
    """Phase 2: execute the clarifying-search queries via ToolExecutor."""
    if search is None:
        return {}
    executor = ToolExecutor(search=search)
    return {
        q: executor.execute_search(q, max_results=max_search_results, cutoff_date=cutoff_date)
        for q in queries
    }


# %% [markdown]
# Search results become a compact evidence block for the final model call.
# Dates and source URLs remain visible for audit.


# %%
def _format_supervisor_evidence(sr: dict[str, list[SearchResult]]) -> str:
    """Render the search-result dict into the supervisor-finalize prompt's evidence block."""
    lines: list[str] = []
    for q, results in sr.items():
        lines.append(f"QUERY: {q}")
        for i, r in enumerate(results, start=1):
            lines.append(f"{i}. {r.title}")
            if r.url:
                lines.append(f"   URL: {r.url}")
            if r.snippet:
                lines.append(f"   {r.snippet}")
            if r.published:
                lines.append(f"   Published: {r.published}")
        lines.append("")
    return "\n".join(lines) if lines else "No additional search evidence."


# %% [markdown]
# The final phase parses and clamps the supervisor probability. Invalid
# confidence labels fall back to `medium` instead of triggering an override.


# %%
def _supervisor_finalize(
    llm,
    question: str,
    agent_summaries: str,
    search_results: dict[str, list[SearchResult]],
) -> tuple[float | None, str | None, str | None, TokenUsage]:
    """Phase 3: LLM call asking for final p_yes / confidence / rationale."""
    evidence_text = _format_supervisor_evidence(search_results)
    prompt = SUPERVISOR_FINALIZE_PROMPT.format(
        question=question,
        agent_summaries=agent_summaries,
        supervisor_evidence=evidence_text,
    )
    raw, tokens = llm.complete_with_usage(
        [ChatMessage(role="user", content=prompt)], json_mode=True
    )
    parsed = parse_json(raw)
    p_yes_raw = parsed.get("p_yes")
    confidence = parsed.get("confidence")
    rationale = parsed.get("rationale")

    if confidence is not None:
        conf_str = str(confidence).lower()
        if conf_str not in ("high", "medium", "low"):
            conf_str = "medium"
        confidence = conf_str

    p_yes = float(p_yes_raw) if p_yes_raw is not None else None
    if p_yes is not None:
        p_yes = max(0.0, min(1.0, p_yes))
    return p_yes, confidence, rationale, tokens


# %% [markdown]
# The driver combines the three phases and returns both the artifact and its
# token count.


# %%
def _run_supervisor(
    supervisor,
    question: str,
    agent_summaries: str,
    cutoff_date: date | None,
) -> tuple[SupervisorArtifact, TokenUsage]:
    """Run identify, search, and finalize in sequence."""
    disagreements, queries, identify_tokens = _supervisor_identify_disagreements(
        supervisor.llm, agent_summaries, supervisor.max_queries
    )
    search_results = _supervisor_run_searches(
        supervisor.search, queries, supervisor.max_search_results, cutoff_date
    )
    p_yes, confidence, rationale, finalize_tokens = _supervisor_finalize(
        supervisor.llm, question, agent_summaries, search_results
    )
    tokens = identify_tokens + finalize_tokens
    artifact = SupervisorArtifact(
        disagreements=disagreements,
        queries=queries,
        search_results=search_results,
        p_yes=p_yes,
        confidence=confidence,
        rationale=str(rationale) if rationale is not None else None,
        token_usage=tokens,
    )
    return artifact, tokens


# %% [markdown]
# ## The SupervisorAgent Class
#
# Three phases: (1) identify disagreements, (2) run clarifying searches,
# (3) finalize with evidence. The supervisor only overrides the ensemble
# when its confidence is "high", preserving agent diversity by default.


# %%
class SupervisorAgent:
    """Supervisor that reconciles agent ensemble via clarifying searches."""

    def __init__(
        self,
        llm,
        search: SearchClient | None = None,
        max_queries: int = 3,
        max_search_results: int = 5,
    ) -> None:
        self.llm = llm
        self.search = search
        self.max_queries = max_queries
        self.max_search_results = max_search_results
        self.token_usage = TokenUsage()

    def run(
        self,
        question: str,
        agent_summaries: str,
        cutoff_date: date | None = None,
    ) -> SupervisorArtifact:
        """Run supervisor reconciliation. Returns SupervisorArtifact."""
        artifact, self.token_usage = _run_supervisor(self, question, agent_summaries, cutoff_date)
        return artifact


# %% [markdown]
# ## Pipeline helpers
#
# The debate stage is the implementation from
# [`07_adversarial_debate`](07_adversarial_debate.ipynb), imported from
# `agent_specialists`. What is local to this notebook is the research phase and the rule that
# decides how much of the supervisor's opinion reaches the final number.


# %%
def _run_research_agents(
    llm,
    search,
    question: ForecastQuestion,
    n_agents: int,
    max_steps: int,
) -> list[AgentForecastArtifact]:
    """Phase 1: run N identical ResearchAgents and collect their artifacts."""
    artifacts: list[AgentForecastArtifact] = []
    for i in range(n_agents):
        agent = ResearchAgent(llm=llm, search=search, agent_id=f"agent_{i}", max_steps=max_steps)
        artifacts.append(agent.run(question, market_price=question.current_market_price))
    return artifacts


# %% [markdown]
# The supervisor has seen the agents' summaries and one round of clarifying searches; the
# agents each did their own research. So the supervisor gets a say proportional to the
# confidence it states, and never an unconditional one: it replaces the post-debate probability
# only at high confidence, is mixed in at `SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT` at medium, and is ignored
# at low.
#
# The confidence values the pipeline attaches to its own output are stated conventions, not
# measurements. They rank three outcomes - the supervisor overrode, it contributed, it was
# ignored - so a consumer can order forecasts by how much reconciliation they received. Nothing
# estimates them, and [`09_evaluation_and_governance`](09_evaluation_and_governance.ipynb) is
# where a confidence that means something has to come from.


# %%
def _blend_final_probability(
    post_debate: float,
    supervisor_artifact: SupervisorArtifact,
    *,
    medium_weight: float = SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT,
) -> tuple[float, float]:
    """Phase 4 to final: confidence-gated supervisor override. Returns (p_yes, confidence)."""
    final_p = post_debate
    final_confidence = CONFIDENCE_WHEN_IGNORED
    if supervisor_artifact.p_yes is not None and supervisor_artifact.confidence == "high":
        final_p = supervisor_artifact.p_yes
        final_confidence = CONFIDENCE_WHEN_OVERRIDDEN
    elif supervisor_artifact.confidence == "medium":
        if supervisor_artifact.p_yes is not None:
            final_p = (1 - medium_weight) * post_debate + (
                medium_weight * supervisor_artifact.p_yes
            )
            final_confidence = CONFIDENCE_WHEN_BLENDED
    return max(0.01, min(0.99, final_p)), final_confidence


# %% [markdown]
# The execution helper composes the four phases and records their artifacts.
# Keeping orchestration outside the class leaves the reader-facing class as a
# small configuration object.


# %%
def _forecast_one(forecaster, question: ForecastQuestion) -> ForecastResult:
    started = time.time()
    cutoff = date.fromisoformat(question.cutoff_date) if question.cutoff_date else None
    agents = _run_research_agents(
        forecaster.llm, forecaster.search, question, forecaster.n_agents, forecaster.max_steps
    )
    answered = [agent for agent in agents if agent.forecast_produced]
    if not answered:
        raise RuntimeError(f"no agent produced a forecast for: {question.question}")
    summaries = "\n\n---\n\n".join(format_agent_summary(agent) for agent in answered)
    aggregation = neyman_extremize(
        [agent.p_yes for agent in answered], base=0.5, correlation=forecaster.correlation
    )
    aggregate_p = (
        aggregation.extremized_probability
        if aggregation.extremized_probability is not None
        else aggregation.raw_probability
    )
    debate = DebateAgent(
        llm=forecaster.llm,
        max_rounds=forecaster.debate_rounds,
        consensus_threshold=forecaster.consensus_threshold,
    ).run(question.question, summaries, aggregate_p)
    midpoint = (
        (debate.bull_final_probability + debate.bear_final_probability) / 2
        if debate.bull_final_probability is not None
        else aggregate_p
    )
    supervisor = SupervisorAgent(llm=forecaster.llm, search=forecaster.search).run(
        question.question, summaries, cutoff_date=cutoff
    )
    post_debate = (1 - DEBATE_WEIGHT) * aggregate_p + DEBATE_WEIGHT * midpoint
    final_p, confidence = _blend_final_probability(
        post_debate, supervisor, medium_weight=SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT
    )
    tokens = sum((agent.token_usage for agent in agents), start=TokenUsage())
    tokens = tokens + debate.token_usage + supervisor.token_usage
    return ForecastResult(
        question=question,
        agents=agents,
        aggregation=aggregation,
        debate=debate,
        supervisor=supervisor,
        final_probability=round(final_p, 4),
        final_confidence=round(confidence, 3),
        total_token_usage=tokens,
        duration_seconds=round(time.time() - started, 2),
    )


# %% [markdown]
# ## The AIAForecaster Class
#
# The complete four-phase pipeline:
# 1. **Research agents**: N parallel agents produce forecasts
# 2. **Aggregation**: Neyman extremization combines agent probabilities
# 3. **Debate**: Bull/bear stress-test the aggregate
# 4. **Supervisor**: Reconcile with clarifying searches, confidence-gated override


# %%
class AIAForecaster:
    """Complete AIA Forecaster pipeline: agents → aggregate → debate → supervisor."""

    def __init__(
        self,
        llm,
        search: SearchClient | None = None,
        n_agents: int = 3,
        max_steps: int = 5,
        debate_rounds: int = 3,
        consensus_threshold: float = 0.05,
        correlation: float = 0.3,
    ) -> None:
        self.llm = llm
        self.search = search
        self.n_agents = n_agents
        self.max_steps = max_steps
        self.debate_rounds = debate_rounds
        self.consensus_threshold = consensus_threshold
        self.correlation = correlation

    def forecast(self, question: ForecastQuestion) -> ForecastResult:
        """Run the full pipeline on a single question."""
        return _forecast_one(self, question)


# %% [markdown]
# ## The Two Questions
#
# The pipeline runs end to end on both of the chapter's pinned questions:
# `CHAPTER_CLEAR_QUESTION`, the recession question where the research agents landed close
# together in [`06_multi_agent_research`](06_multi_agent_research.ipynb), and
# `CHAPTER_CONTESTED_QUESTION`, the rate-hike question where they spread out in
# [`07_adversarial_debate`](07_adversarial_debate.ipynb). Running both shows what each stage
# does when the panel already agrees and when it does not.
#
# Both were unresolved when the captures were taken, which is what makes them honest forecasts
# and also what makes them unscoreable; the replay cell reports each capture's date from the
# record. Replayed by default; `RUN_LIVE = True` with `ANTHROPIC_API_KEY` and `TAVILY_API_KEY`
# forecasts current questions instead.

# %%
questions = [get_chapter_clear_question(), get_chapter_contested_question()]

print(f"Forecasting {len(questions)} questions:")
for q in questions:
    market = f"{q.current_market_price:.0%}" if q.current_market_price is not None else "?"
    print(f"  • {q.question}")
    if q.resolution_date:
        print(f"    Resolves: {q.resolution_date} | Market: {market}")
    else:
        print(f"    Market: {market}")

# %% [markdown]
# ## Running the Pipeline

# %% [markdown]
# Live execution is isolated in one helper. The publication path below never
# calls it while `RUN_LIVE` remains false.


# %%
def _run_live_questions(questions_to_run: list[ForecastQuestion]) -> tuple[list, list]:
    """Run and persist fresh provider-backed forecasts."""
    llm = create_llm_client(LLM_PROVIDER)
    search = create_search_client(LLM_PROVIDER)
    live_results, live_traces = [], []
    for q in questions_to_run:
        tracer = trace_llm(llm, label="pipeline")
        forecaster = AIAForecaster(
            llm=tracer,
            search=search,
            n_agents=N_AGENTS,
            max_steps=MAX_STEPS,
            debate_rounds=DEBATE_ROUNDS,
            correlation=NEYMAN_CORRELATION,
        )
        result = forecaster.forecast(q)
        run = RunTrace.from_result(
            result,
            notebook="08_forecasting_pipeline",
            provider=llm.model_name,
            params={
                "n_agents": N_AGENTS,
                "max_steps": MAX_STEPS,
                "debate_rounds": DEBATE_ROUNDS,
                "correlation": NEYMAN_CORRELATION,
                "debate_weight": DEBATE_WEIGHT,
                "supervisor_medium_weight": SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT,
            },
            llm_calls=tracer.calls,
            notes="Full AIA pipeline: research, aggregate, debate, supervisor.",
        )
        path = run.save()
        print(
            f"  ✓ {q.question[:50]}... → {result.final_probability:.2f} "
            f"({result.duration_seconds:.1f}s) | {len(run.llm_calls)} calls → {path.name}"
        )
        live_results.append(result)
        live_traces.append(run)
    return live_results, live_traces


# %% [markdown]
# Replay loads only the two committed trace names. No provider client or search
# client is created on this path.


# %%
def _load_pinned_questions() -> tuple[list, list]:
    """Rehydrate the two committed pipeline traces."""
    replay_results, replay_traces = [], []
    for pinned_name in PINNED_TRACES:
        run = RunTrace.load(TRACES_DIR / pinned_name)
        result = run.forecast_result()
        recorded = datetime.fromisoformat(run.created_at).date().isoformat()
        print(
            f"  ✓ {result.question.question[:50]}... → {result.final_probability:.2f} "
            f"(replay of a capture recorded {recorded}) | {len(run.llm_calls)} calls"
        )
        replay_results.append(result)
        replay_traces.append(run)
    return replay_results, replay_traces


# %%
if RUN_LIVE:
    results, run_traces = _run_live_questions(questions)
else:
    results, run_traces = _load_pinned_questions()

# %% [markdown]
# ## Results Summary

# %%
grand_total = TokenUsage()
for r in results:
    grand_total = grand_total + r.total_token_usage

summary_df = pl.DataFrame(
    [
        {
            "question": r.question.question[:80],
            "final": round(r.final_probability, 3),
            "market": (
                round(r.question.current_market_price, 3)
                if r.question.current_market_price is not None
                else None
            ),
            "confidence": round(r.final_confidence, 2),
            "duration_s": (
                round(r.duration_seconds, 1) if r.duration_seconds is not None else None
            ),
        }
        for r in results
    ]
)
print(f"Total tokens across {len(results)} questions: {grand_total.total_tokens:,}\n")
summary_df

# %% [markdown]
# ## The Full Trace, One Question
#
# The untruncated record for the first question, stage by stage, through the same
# `agent_observability` helpers used across the chapter: each research agent's queries,
# documents and rationale; the debate transcript with both sides' complete arguments; and the
# supervisor's reconciliation, including the disagreements it flagged, the clarifying searches
# it ran, and the probability it returned. All of it is in the saved JSON, so this readout can
# be rebuilt from disk with `RunTrace.load` long after the run.

# %%
r = results[0]
print(f"Question: {r.question.question}\n")
print(show_agents(r.agents))

# %% [markdown]
# ### Aggregation

# %%
if r.aggregation:
    print(f"  method:     {r.aggregation.method}")
    print(f"  inputs:     {r.aggregation.input_probabilities}")
    print(f"  raw mean:   {r.aggregation.raw_probability:.2f}")
    print(f"  extremized: {r.aggregation.extremized_probability:.2f}")
    print(f"  d={r.aggregation.extremization_factor:.2f}, n_eff={r.aggregation.effective_n:.1f}")

# %% [markdown]
# ### Debate

# %%
if r.debate:
    print(show_debate_transcript(r.debate))

# %% [markdown]
# ### Supervisor, and what the pipeline returned

# %%
if r.supervisor:
    print(show_supervisor(r.supervisor))

print(f"  probability: {r.final_probability:.2f}")
print(f"  confidence:  {r.final_confidence:.2f}")
if r.duration_seconds is not None:
    print(f"  duration:    {r.duration_seconds:.1f}s")
else:
    print("  duration:    n/a (replayed from pinned trace)")

# %% [markdown]
# ## Where the Probability Went
#
# Three of the numbers a run produces are the same quantity at different points in the
# pipeline: the aggregate over the research agents, the post-debate blend, and the final
# probability. Those are what the line below joins. Everything else a stage produced is an
# input to one of them - the market price the agents were shown, the agents' own answers, the
# debate midpoint that enters the post-debate blend at the run's own debate weight, and the
# supervisor's own probability - and is drawn as an open marker at the stage that read it.
#
# The distinction decides what a gap on this chart means. Between two carried values it is
# movement, and a stage that never moves anything on any question is being paid for and not
# used. Between two research agents it is disagreement: they answer in parallel and neither
# saw the other.

# %% [markdown]
# The post-debate value is the one number on the line that no stage stores: it is rebuilt from
# the aggregate and the debate midpoint. On a replay it has to be rebuilt with the weights the
# capture was recorded with rather than the ones set in this notebook now. Mixing the two
# recomputes the middle point of the line and leaves the points either side of it at their
# recorded values. Raising `DEBATE_WEIGHT` far enough would pull the post-debate point above
# both of its neighbours and draw a large supervisor correction that never happened. So the
# weights take effect on a live run, and are read back from the trace on a replay.
#
# Neither weight was recorded when the two committed captures were taken, so they fall back to
# the values in use then. `carried_probabilities` re-derives each capture's final probability
# from its own parts and raises if the fallback does not reproduce it, which is what keeps the
# fallback from becoming an assumption nobody checks.


# %%
CAPTURED_DEBATE_WEIGHT = 0.3
CAPTURED_SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT = 0.4


def carried_probabilities(result: ForecastResult, run: RunTrace) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
    """Return (aggregate, debate midpoint, post-debate) under the run's own weights."""
    debate_weight = float(run.params.get("debate_weight", CAPTURED_DEBATE_WEIGHT))
    medium_weight = float(
        run.params.get("supervisor_medium_weight", CAPTURED_SUPERVISOR_MEDIUM_WEIGHT)
    )
    aggregate_p = (
        result.aggregation.extremized_probability
        if result.aggregation.extremized_probability is not None
        else result.aggregation.raw_probability
    )
    midpoint = (
        (result.debate.bull_final_probability + result.debate.bear_final_probability) / 2
        if result.debate and result.debate.bull_final_probability is not None
        else aggregate_p
    )
    post_debate = (1 - debate_weight) * aggregate_p + debate_weight * midpoint

    if result.supervisor is not None:
        rebuilt, _ = _blend_final_probability(
            post_debate, result.supervisor, medium_weight=medium_weight
        )
        if abs(round(rebuilt, 4) - result.final_probability) > 1e-4:
            raise RuntimeError(
                f"Rebuilt final probability {rebuilt:.4f} does not match the recorded "
                f"{result.final_probability:.4f} for {result.question.question[:50]}: "
                f"the weights this line is drawn with are not the ones the run used."
            )
    return aggregate_p, midpoint, post_debate


# %%
STAGE_X = {
    "Market": 0,
    "Agents": 1,
    "Aggregate": 2,
    "Post-debate": 3,
    "Supervisor": 4,
    "Final": 5,
}

carried_rows, input_rows = [], []
for r, run in zip(results, run_traces, strict=True):
    q_short = textwrap.shorten(r.question.question, width=44, placeholder="...")
    aggregate_p, midpoint, post_debate = carried_probabilities(r, run)

    carried_rows += [
        {"question": q_short, "stage": "Aggregate", "p_yes": aggregate_p},
        {"question": q_short, "stage": "Post-debate", "p_yes": post_debate},
        {"question": q_short, "stage": "Final", "p_yes": r.final_probability},
    ]

    if r.question.current_market_price is not None:
        input_rows.append(
            {"question": q_short, "stage": "Market", "p_yes": r.question.current_market_price}
        )
    for a in r.agents:
        if a.p_yes is not None:
            input_rows.append({"question": q_short, "stage": "Agents", "p_yes": a.p_yes})
    if r.debate and r.debate.bull_final_probability is not None:
        input_rows.append({"question": q_short, "stage": "Post-debate", "p_yes": midpoint})
    if r.supervisor and r.supervisor.p_yes is not None:
        input_rows.append({"question": q_short, "stage": "Supervisor", "p_yes": r.supervisor.p_yes})

carried_df = pl.DataFrame(carried_rows)
inputs_df = pl.DataFrame(input_rows)

fig, ax = plt.subplots()
questions = carried_df["question"].unique(maintain_order=True).to_list()
palette = dict(zip(questions, [COLORS["blue"], COLORS["amber"]]))
for q in questions:
    carried = carried_df.filter(pl.col("question") == q)
    ax.plot(
        [STAGE_X[stage] for stage in carried["stage"]],
        carried["p_yes"].to_list(),
        marker="o",
        linewidth=2,
        color=palette[q],
        label=q,
        zorder=3,
    )
    stage_inputs = inputs_df.filter(pl.col("question") == q)
    ax.scatter(
        [STAGE_X[stage] for stage in stage_inputs["stage"]],
        stage_inputs["p_yes"].to_list(),
        facecolors="none",
        edgecolors=palette[q],
        s=55,
        zorder=2,
    )
ax.set_xticks(list(STAGE_X.values()), list(STAGE_X.keys()))
ax.set_xlabel("Pipeline stage")
ax.set_ylabel("Probability of yes")
ax.set_ylim(0, 1)
add_message_title(
    ax,
    "The probability the pipeline carries, and what each stage read",
    subtitle="Filled markers joined by a line are the running answer; open markers are inputs",
)
ax.legend(loc="upper right")
show_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Chart of probability against pipeline stage, one colour per question. A line joins three "
    "filled markers on each - the aggregate, the post-debate blend and the final probability - "
    "passing over the supervisor stage without a marker there. Open markers of the same colour "
    "sit at the market price, at each research agent's answer, at the debate midpoint and at "
    "the supervisor's own probability. On one question the three agent markers coincide; on "
    "the other, two coincide and the third sits far above them. Both lines stay in the lower "
    "half of the range, and one ends higher than it started while the other ends lower.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# The steps below are taken over the carried values alone, so each one is the same quantity
# before and after a stage weighted something into it.

# %%
largest_move = (
    carried_df.with_columns(
        pl.col("p_yes").diff().over("question").alias("move"),
        pl.col("stage").shift().over("question").alias("from_stage"),
    )
    .drop_nulls("move")
    .with_columns(pl.col("move").abs().alias("size"))
    .sort("size", descending=True)
    .group_by("question", maintain_order=True)
    .first()
    .select(
        "question",
        pl.format("{} to {}", "from_stage", "stage").alias("largest step"),
        pl.col("move").round(3),
    )
)
largest_move

# %% [markdown]
# The largest carried step falls at a different stage on each question: the post-debate blend
# on one, the supervisor blend on the other. No stage in this pipeline decides the answer and
# none of them is idle.
#
# The open markers carry a reading the line cannot. On the recession question all three
# research agents returned the same probability and the aggregate came out below every one of
# them, because extremizing away from a base of even odds treats agreement between agents as
# evidence - which is the assumption
# [`05_aggregation_math`](05_aggregation_math.ipynb) derives and
# [`06_multi_agent_research`](06_multi_agent_research.ipynb) tests against agents that share a
# prompt. Whether any of this movement is an improvement is a scoring question, and neither of
# these questions had resolved.

# %% [markdown]
# ## Token use

# %%
print(f"  Questions forecasted: {len(results)}")
print(f"  Total tokens: {grand_total.total_tokens:,}")
print(f"  Input tokens: {grand_total.input_tokens:,}")
print(f"  Output tokens: {grand_total.output_tokens:,}")

# %% [markdown]
# ## The Record a Scoring Pipeline Would Read
#
# Everything above lives in memory. What a scoring or monitoring system needs is a flat record
# per question: the forecast, the cutoff, the outcome if it is known, and enough of the
# intermediate stages to attribute a bad forecast to one of them.
#
# Neither of these questions had resolved when the capture was taken, so `resolved_outcome` is
# empty and nothing here can be scored.
# [`09_evaluation_and_governance`](09_evaluation_and_governance.ipynb) builds the scoring rules
# against a panel of questions whose outcomes are known, rather than against these two.

# %%
serialized = [
    {
        "question": r.question.question,
        "cutoff_date": r.question.cutoff_date,
        "final_probability": r.final_probability,
        "resolved_outcome": r.question.resolved_outcome,
        "agent_probs": [a.p_yes for a in r.agents],
        "aggregate": r.aggregation.extremized_probability if r.aggregation else None,
        "debate_consensus": r.debate.consensus_reached if r.debate else None,
        "supervisor_p_yes": r.supervisor.p_yes if r.supervisor else None,
        "supervisor_confidence": r.supervisor.confidence if r.supervisor else None,
        "tokens": r.total_token_usage.total_tokens,
        "duration_s": r.duration_seconds,
    }
    for r in results
]

print(json.dumps(serialized[0], indent=2))
print(f"\n({len(serialized)} records; the second has the same shape)")

# %% [markdown]
# The pipeline moves a probability through four stages and records where it went. What it does
# not establish is that any stage improved the estimate. The aggregation credits the panel with
# an independence nobody measured. The debate narrows the two sides by a few points on the
# contested question, which is a smaller disagreement and not a more accurate one. The
# supervisor's confidence label is its own assertion about itself. Reading the stage-to-stage
# movement as progressive refinement is the mistake this record exists to prevent, and it is
# why the figure above draws the whole path rather than the endpoint.

# %%
recession, rate_hike = results
display(
    Markdown(
        "**This replay.** "
        f"The recession forecast ends at {recession.final_probability:.1%} and the rate-hike "
        f"forecast at {rate_hike.final_probability:.1%}, against market prices of "
        f"{recession.question.current_market_price:.1%} and "
        f"{rate_hike.question.current_market_price:.1%}. Neither distance is a comparison: "
        "both market prices were in every research agent's prompt, so the pipeline was told "
        "where the market stood before it looked at anything. And both questions were "
        "unresolved when the capture was taken, so neither forecast can be scored."
    )
)
# %% [markdown]
# ## Key Takeaways
#
# 1. **The value of a pipeline is that each stage is inspectable, not that each stage improves
#    the answer.** Four stages give four places to look when a forecast is wrong. Whether any
#    of them made it better is a scoring question, and scoring needs resolved questions.
# 2. **An override needs a gate, and the gate needs a rule.** The supervisor can replace the
#    ensemble only at high stated confidence, blends at medium, and is ignored at low. Without
#    that, one model's second opinion silently outranks three agents' evidence.
# 3. **A stated confidence is not a measured one.** Both the supervisor's own label and the
#    scalar this pipeline attaches to the final probability are conventions. They order
#    outcomes; they do not estimate anything.
# 4. **Declare every constant that moves the final number in one place.** The blend
#    weights, the correlation and the override thresholds decide the output, and a reader who
#    cannot find them cannot evaluate the pipeline.
# 5. **The stage-by-stage record is the deliverable.** One JSON file per question holds every
#    prompt, every document, every intermediate probability, and it is what makes a forecast
#    reviewable months later.
#
# **Known limitations of what is built here.** Both questions were unresolved when captured, so
# nothing in this notebook can be scored and no claim about accuracy is available from it. The
# market price is passed to every research agent, so the pipeline's distance from the market
# is not an independent comparison. The blend weights and confidence scalars are conventions,
# and no experiment here shows the four-stage output is better than the three-agent mean.
#
# **Next**: [`09_evaluation_and_governance`](09_evaluation_and_governance.ipynb) builds the
# scoring rules, calibration curves and security controls a pipeline like this needs before
# anyone acts on it.
#
# **Book**: Section 24.7 covers the pipeline architecture and section 24.9 the production
# considerations that follow from it.

```