Hypotheses
LTC Net-Directional Time-Series Momentum (Single-Instrument USD-M, Long-Short, 4H, Discrete Trend-Flip Entries, Capital-Capped, Pure OHLCV)
A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT net-directional TIME-SERIES MOMENTUM strategy on LTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (4H bars) -- the next instance of the factory's SANCTIONED single-asset TSM series (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP…
Strategies
Hypothesis
A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT net-directional TIME-SERIES MOMENTUM strategy on LTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (4H bars) -- the next instance of the factory's SANCTIONED single-asset TSM series (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP already in pipeline), applied to the BEST-SURVIVING decorrelated major still uncovered. RATIONALE FOR ASSET + HORIZON: (1) LTC is a top-tier-liquidity major with full clean history (since 2020 on Binance USD-M) and a DISTINCT driver -- a PoW payment/'digital-silver' coin -- so its trends are……Show moreShow less
A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT net-directional TIME-SERIES MOMENTUM strategy on LTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (4H bars) -- the next instance of the factory's SANCTIONED single-asset TSM series (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP already in pipeline), applied to the BEST-SURVIVING decorrelated major still uncovered. RATIONALE FOR ASSET + HORIZON: (1) LTC is a top-tier-liquidity major with full clean history (since 2020 on Binance USD-M) and a DISTINCT driver -- a PoW payment/'digital-silver' coin -- so its trends are decorrelated from the L1/smart-contract/exchange majors (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB) already covered, adding a genuine diversifying return stream (XRP covers the payment/legal angle; LTC adds the lower-beta PoW-payment angle). (2) CRITICALLY, LTC is chosen over higher-variance uncovered alts (DOGE/ADA/AVAX) because the analyst's dominant holdout-killer this session is MANIA/2021-CONCENTRATION (DOGE funding = '2021 retail-mania beta'; cross-sectional momentum holdout-failed on 2021-concentration). LTC is the LOWEST-BETA, CLEANEST-TRENDING, LEAST-MANIA-CONCENTRATED liquid major left -> the best generalization/holdout odds of the uncovered set. (3) LONG-SHORT fills the under-represented direction bucket (13.1%). This is the validated, analyst-endorsed edge ('reversion is dead; redirect to net-directional momentum/trend'); single-asset TSM is exactly that, distinct from the closed basket/dollar-neutral/funding-confirmed variants. EVERY design choice respects this session's hard engine walls: (a) SINGLE-INSTRUMENT -- NOT a multi-leg basket, whose summed gross exposure proved structurally UNCAPPABLE in this engine. (b) DISCRETE full-size enter/exit on trend flips -- NOT continuous per-bar rebalancing, which produced the 244%-vs-cap notional-inflation artifact. (c) PURE OHLCV bars -- NOT raw trade-ticks, which hit the hard ~2-day sandbox-memory wall (data_days=2); NOT options (engine-unwired -> zero trades); NOT funding (data ends 2024). Pure 4H OHLCV has full history and is guaranteed to load and trade in the Layer-3 sandbox. (d) 4H dense triggers -- avoids the daily single-asset event-sparsity that trade-starved breakout/RSI/candle walk-forwards to OOS-all-zero. (e) CAPITAL-CAPPED against STABLE realized equity (excl. unrealized PnL), hard-capped <=100%. Per the brief's 'favor simpler strategies' guidance, intentionally minimal: 3 tunables (trend_lookback, entry_band, stop_atr_mult) with robust defaults to avoid a trend_lookback cliff.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.