Hypotheses
SOL Hyperliquid 4H Bidirectional Donchian Channel Breakout Long+Short (OHLCV-Only, 3-Parameter, Symmetric Risk)
A bidirectional (LONG+SHORT) single-instrument trend-initiation strategy on SOL-USD.HYPERLIQUID perpetual futures using 4-HOUR bars and OHLCV-only data. Classic Donchian channel breakout mechanism applied…
Strategies
Hypothesis
A bidirectional (LONG+SHORT) single-instrument trend-initiation strategy on SOL-USD.HYPERLIQUID perpetual futures using 4-HOUR bars and OHLCV-only data. Classic Donchian channel breakout mechanism applied SYMMETRICALLY: enter long when price breaks the N-bar high, enter short when price breaks the N-bar low, with an ATR-based trailing stop on both sides. STRATEGIC RATIONALE FOR THIS DESIGN: (1) PORTFOLIO QUOTA FILL — HYPERLIQUID is at 4.8% vs ≥20% target (the second-largest absolute venue gap after Options);……Show moreShow less
A bidirectional (LONG+SHORT) single-instrument trend-initiation strategy on SOL-USD.HYPERLIQUID perpetual futures using 4-HOUR bars and OHLCV-only data. Classic Donchian channel breakout mechanism applied SYMMETRICALLY: enter long when price breaks the N-bar high, enter short when price breaks the N-bar low, with an ATR-based trailing stop on both sides. STRATEGIC RATIONALE FOR THIS DESIGN: (1) PORTFOLIO QUOTA FILL — HYPERLIQUID is at 4.8% vs ≥20% target (the second-largest absolute venue gap after Options); long_short is at 12.6% vs ≤55% long_only target (we are 87% long-biased and need short exposure). This single hypothesis hits BOTH under-represented buckets simultaneously. (2) MECHANISM CHOICE — Donchian breakout is among the most empirically validated trend-initiation primitives across 50+ years of futures markets (Turtle Traders, Dunn Capital, Aspect, etc.), and the factory has already validated a sibling BtcFourHourDonchianTrendBreakoutLong on BINANCE 4H. This proposal transfers the proven mechanism to a DIFFERENT VENUE (HYPERLIQUID has structurally different participants: more retail-leveraged, less institutional HFT) and a DIFFERENT ASSET (SOL is more volatile than BTC, producing more frequent channel breaks → higher trade count → better walk-forward sample size). (3) FAILURE-MODE AVOIDANCE: completely avoids the failure patterns of the last 10 abandons — (a) OHLCV-only (no supplementary funding/liquidations data pitfalls that killed the BTC Cross-Venue Funding Differential and ETH Liquidation Cluster); (b) single instrument single venue (no cross-venue execution coordination complexity that killed Cross-Venue Funding); (c) 4H bars (NOT 1H which is deprecated per LINK/ETH Pair MR failure note); (d) 3 hypothesis-declared tunable parameters with strict scope discipline (avoiding the 12-parameter bloat that killed ETH Pullback and AVAX Trend-Pullback); (e) symmetric stop/take-profit (no asymmetric TP<SL math that killed ETH Liquidation); (f) trend-following mechanism with natural trade frequency >40/year on 4H bars (avoiding the trade-starvation that killed Multi-Week Trend Following); (g) NOT BNB (avoiding the post-2024 BNB regime decay moratorium); (h) lookback well under (OOS_window_days / 2) to avoid the warmup-deficit that killed Multi-Week TFL. (4) The hypothesis is INTENTIONALLY architecturally MINIMAL — Donchian period N (single tunable), ATR stop multiplier (single tunable), position notional pct (single tunable). NO trend filter, NO volume filter, NO regime filter — these are the conjunction-probability killers that produced trade-starvation in past 4-parameter hypotheses. The Donchian breakout alone IS the entire signal.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.