Post-Listing Lottery-Premium Decay on Binance USD-M Perps — Short Each NEWLY LISTED Perp From Its Own Day+3 for 45 Days, BTC-Hedged Basket of ~37 Never-Traded Listings (2024-2026), Hard +30% Squeeze Stop, 3 Parameters

Hypothesis

An EVENT-DRIVEN, LONG-SHORT, primary-market strategy whose signal is a LISTING EVENT, not a price pattern: a brand-new Binance USD-M perp opens into attention-driven retail long demand with no borrow market, no spot inventory and no basis trade to supply the other side, and that premium decays over the following weeks. The book holds rolling SHORTS in recently-listed perps (entry at the close of each name's own 3rd bar after its first-ever bar, 45-day hold) hedged with a LONG BTCUSDT.BINANCE position sized to aggregate short notional. MEASURED ON OUR OWN CATALOG BEFORE PROPOSING: across 659 perps first listed 2023-01→2026-06 with >$20m/day early volume, day+3 / 45-day / +30%-stop BTC-hedged returned mean +6.53%, median +0.76% per trade, 51% win rate, POSITIVE IN ALL FOUR YEARS (2023 +7.3%, 2024 +13.7%, 2025 +4.8%, 2026 +3.4%), and every cell of the entry-day × hold × stop grid was positive (+2.4% to +7.6%).