Strategies
行业ETF月度动量配置:截面优选、绝对动量过滤与月内止损
Outcome: Backtest Review
SectorEtfMonthlyAbsoluteMomentum
行业ETF月度动量配置:截面优选、绝对动量过滤与月内止损
Hypothesis
将原文行业配置机制改编为九只美国行业ETF的日线、无杠杆、只做多策略。采用21个交易日收益排序,每月选择前三名,仅持有同期绝对收益为正的标的,并设置月内收盘止损。不复制不可直接交易的中信行业指数,不声称复现原文收益。前三名、仓位预算和止损数值均为本次预注册的实现选择,原文摘录没有给出这些完整参数。
保留来源的截面动量、时序动量和止损三项核心机制。与已失败的美国行业ETF策略相比,本次不做空落后行业、不使用12-1月风险调整排名、不叠加债券,也不优化杠杆。只做多会加重现有方向集中,因此这是遵守来源机制的明确例外;多标的USEQ配置减少新增单币和Binance期货实验。corpus_concentration为空,不能声称这些ETF在近期语料中尚未使用。美国行业ETF上的机制仍可能无效,过去失败构成负面先验。
Implementation
Long-only, unlevered monthly sector rotation over nine US sector ETFs (XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY; daily USEQ bars). On the close of the last trading day of each month (platform session calendar, calendar-anchored, no bar counters) the nine are ranked by 21-session return; the target set is the top 3 whose own 21-session return is > 0 (absolute-momentum floor). Holdings outside the target are sold and new targets bought with market orders that fill at the next session open (platform next_open_fill). Intra-month, a holding whose daily close is stop_loss_pct (6% baseline, tunable 4-6%) below its anchor is sold at the next open and is only eligible again at the next month end. Anchor = entry fill price, or the month-end close at which a held ETF was retained for a new month. Sizing: whole shares, per-position fraction = min(0.20, 0.6/3, 0.012/stop_loss_pct) x leverage(1.0) = 20% of equity, max gross 60% (3 x 20%).
Iteration History
Verification failed (Layer 1.5 — hypothesis/config consistency) [class=hypothesis_mismatch]: - optimization_plan fixes leverage at 1.0
Verification failed (Layer 3 — sandbox backtest): execution_contract_unsupported: the registered nine-ETF portfolio requires month-end close decisions executed at the next session open. The base template has no next-session-open portfolio execution hook. Engine support is required before this run can be evaluated. Bar type used: XLB.USEQ-1-DAY-LAST-EXTERNAL, Bars processed: 0 Ensure your strategy produces trades with the given data and parameters.
Analysis
顺势而为,行业趋势配置模型研究-中信证券-20200409 - BigQuant量化交易
Backtest Review
- Sharpe
- 0.19
- Total return
- 38.01%
- Max drawdown
- 31.00%
- Trades
- 607
- Win rate
- 51.2%
- Profit factor
- 1.16
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.