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AVAX Hyperliquid Daily Simple Trend-Following Long with 50-SMA Trend Filter

Hypothèse

A long-only single-instrument SIMPLE TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on AVAX perpetual futures on the HYPERLIQUID exchange (DEX-based perp protocol) using daily bars and OHLCV-only data. This proposal targets a critical gap: every existing portfolio strategy uses BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, or BNB — there is ZERO mid-cap altcoin exposure. AVAX is a top-15 crypto by market cap, top-10 by daily futures volume, and has been a major venue for DeFi/Layer-1 cycle exposure since 2020. AVAX has DISTINCT cycle dynamics from BTC/ETH/SOL: AVAX trends are driven by Avalanche-specific events (subnet launches, institutional partnerships, ecosystem grant announcements) that create multi-week directional moves WITHOUT the broader-market correlation that dominates BTC/ETH. This is a per-asset edge case (Avalanche-specific narrative cycles), NOT blind architecture replication of BTC/ETH trend-following. The mechanism is intentionally MINIMAL: a 50-day SMA crossover trend filter — enter long when daily close crosses above 50-day SMA in the context of a 200-day SMA bull regime, exit when daily close crosses below 50-day SMA. This is the most parameter-minimal trend-following mechanism possible (Donchian 1934, Dunnigan 1956, Faith Turtles 1980s) with ~90 years of empirical validation across asset classes. Hyperliquid is chosen because (a) the persistent Binance auditor failure has prevented every Binance strategy from passing Layer 3 — Hyperliquid uses a separate data-fetching path (HyperliquidCollector) that the BTC/ETH/LINK/SOL HL strategies are testing; if that path works, AVAX HL extends the bypass; (b) AVAX is in Hyperliquid's top-30 perps by volume — sufficient liquidity for the strategy; (c) Hyperliquid lower fees (~0.09% RT vs Binance 0.10%) marginally improve trend-following economics; (d) AVAX previously failed on Binance Daily (BB Mean Reversion) due to infrastructure — HL gives it a fresh path. AVAX also fills the alt-rotation thesis: when ETH/SOL outperform BTC during alt-season cycles, AVAX typically participates with 1.5-2× beta to ETH, providing additional alt-cycle capture beyond the existing SOL/LINK exposure. Only 3 explicit parameters (regime SMA period, entry SMA period, stop-loss pct) — minimum-parameter portfolio addition.

Stratmill est un outil de recherche et de paper trading, pas un conseil financier ni un courtier. Les résultats de backtest et de paper trading sont hypothétiques. Le trading comporte un risque de perte.