DOT 4H Hull Moving Average Slope Trend-Following Long
Hypothèse
A long-only single-instrument TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on DOTUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using the Hull Moving Average (HMA) on 4-hour bars. CRITICAL DESIGN CHOICES locked in by the now-decisive feedback: (a) ZERO supplementary data dependency — 6 consecutive supp-data hypotheses failed (ETH liquidations, BTC taker_ratio, DOGE OI, BTC OI, XRP premium_index, AVAX taker_ratio); this strategy uses ONLY OHLCV. (b) NOT mean reversion (failed on alt perps), NOT contrarian short (failed on BTC funding). (c) 4H + Binance USD-M — the empirically proven verification combination. (d) NEW symbol — DOT (Polkadot) is not in the current portfolio of ADA/AVAX/BNB/BTC/ETH/LINK/LTC/NEAR/SOL. (e) NEW mechanism — Hull MA is structurally distinct from every other in-pipeline indicator: it's NOT a channel (Donchian/Keltner), NOT volume-based, NOT MACD, NOT Supertrend, NOT a basic EMA crossover. Hull MA (Hull 2005) uses a recursive weighted-moving-average construction that reduces lag without sacrificing smoothness — it tracks trend turns ~3-5 bars earlier than a same-period SMA/EMA while suppressing the same intrabar noise. (f) MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — just ONE meaningful parameter (HMA period = 20, canonical default) plus standard fixed exits (4% stop, 10-day time stop).
Stratmill est un outil de recherche et de paper trading, pas un conseil financier ni un courtier. Les résultats de backtest et de paper trading sont hypothétiques. Le trading comporte un risque de perte.