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BTC Same-Exchange Spot-Perp Basis Mean-Reversion Long-Short on BINANCE (Cross-Venue Signal: BINANCE_SPOT → BINANCE Perp Execution, 4H, Pure OHLCV, 3-Parameter Contrarian)

Hypothèse

Cross-venue contrarian mean-reversion strategy on BTC. EXECUTION instrument is BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual — supports long AND short, 0.10% RT fees). SIGNAL source is the basis between BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT close and BTCUSDT.BINANCE perp close at each 4H bar close — explicitly cross-venue (BINANCE_SPOT venue is distinct from BINANCE per the portfolio bucket classification). The mechanism is fundamentally distinct from the deprecated 'crypto pairs ratio MR' failure class because the spot-perp basis is STRUCTURALLY ARBITRAGE-BOUNDED by the funding mechanism: when perp dislocates from spot, funding payments mechanically incentivize arbitrageurs to close the gap. This is the OPPOSITE of L1-token ratio pairs (SOL/AVAX, BTC/ETH) where competing crypto assets are 'drift-dominant, NOT a stationary process' per analyst's deprecation note — basis IS stationary by exchange design. When perp closes >+50 bps above spot (over-leveraged longs paying premium), enter SHORT perp. When perp closes >-30 bps below spot (rare, capitulation), enter LONG perp. Exit when basis returns to ±10 bps neutral OR time-stop at 12 bars (48 hours). Crucially: NO funding payment dependency (so unaffected by the infrastructure gap that killed 9 funding strategies), NO basis-arbitrage execution (no spot leg = no 0.20% spot fees, no two-leg orchestration), pure single-instrument execution driven by cross-venue signal. Trade frequency: spot-perp basis crosses ±50/±30 bps approximately 40-80 times/year on BTC across the 7+ year BINANCE_SPOT history — yielding 24-40 OOS trades per walk-forward window, well above the analyst's empirically-established 5-trade-per-window floor.

Stratmill est un outil de recherche et de paper trading, pas un conseil financier ni un courtier. Les résultats de backtest et de paper trading sont hypothétiques. Le trading comporte un risque de perte.