Prognose eines Research-Agenten zu einer Zinserhöhung der US-Notenbank 2026
Code Machine Learning for Trading
Zusammenfassung
Dieser Research-Agent-Datensatz untersucht, ob die Federal Reserve die Obergrenze ihres Zielzinssatzes im Jahr 2026 anheben wird. Er enthält einen Marktpreis, Suchverläufe und Wahrscheinlichkeitsprognosen des Agenten. Die erste Begründung spricht für eine Erhöhung und nennt Inflationsrisiken durch Energiepreise und Zölle, weist aber auch auf Unsicherheit bezüglich Wachstum, Beschäftigung und geopolitischer Lage hin. Eine spätere Prognose nennt eine deutlich niedrigere Wahrscheinlichkeit. Sie begründet dies damit, dass die Zinsen im Verlauf von 2025 gesenkt worden waren und eine Erhöhung eine erneute Beschleunigung der Inflation voraussetzen würde.
Der Datensatz veranschaulicht, wie eine Prognose Marktpreise, geldpolitische Vorgeschichte, Inflationsaussichten und wirtschaftliche Bedingungen verbinden und zugleich Unsicherheit deutlich machen kann. Die Evidenz besteht aus Suchergebnis-Auszügen und generierten Begründungen statt einer systematischen Quellenprüfung; einige Details und Schätzungen widersprechen sich. Zum Zeitpunkt der Erstellung war die Frage noch nicht entschieden, daher ist keine der Wahrscheinlichkeiten ein bestätigtes Ergebnis. Betrachten Sie die Schätzungen als Momentaufnahme konkurrierender Einschätzungen, nicht als nachgewiesenes Handelssignal oder verlässlichen Konsens.
Kernaussagen
- Die Forschungsfrage definiert eine Zinserhöhung als Anhebung der Obergrenze des Zielkorridors für Federal Funds im Jahr 2026.
- Der Datensatz enthält deutlich voneinander abweichende Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzungen und Begründungen.
- Inflation, Energiekosten, Zölle, Wachstum und Arbeitsmarktbedingungen werden als relevante Einflussfaktoren für die Geldpolitik genannt.
- Die Prognose stützt sich auf Suchauszüge und generierte Analysen; ihre Evidenz ist daher begrenzt und intern widersprüchlich.
- Das Ereignis war im Datensatz noch nicht entschieden, sodass die Prognose unbestätigt blieb.
Schlagwörter
Volltext
# 04_research_agent_20260609T141730Z_b694ab4d0453.json
```json
{
"notebook": "04_research_agent",
"provider": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"question": {
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?",
"description": "Resolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).",
"resolution_date": "2026-12-09",
"cutoff_date": "",
"current_market_price": 0.545,
"resolved_outcome": null
},
"params": {
"max_steps": 5,
"max_search_results": 5
},
"agents": [
{
"agent_id": "agent_0",
"p_yes": 0.65,
"rationale": "Based on current evidence, there's a moderate-to-high probability of Fed rate hikes in 2026. Key factors: (1) Markets now price >50% chance of rate hikes by end-2026 due to inflation concerns from Iran war and rising oil prices ($110+ crude); (2) Fed currently holds rates at 4.25-4.5% after cutting 1.75% in 2024-2025; (3) Inflation pressures mounting from energy costs and tariff impacts; (4) Historical precedent shows Fed responds to persistent inflation with rate increases. However, uncertainty remains around economic growth, labor market conditions, and geopolitical developments that could shift policy direction.",
"traces": [
{
"step": 1,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook",
"results": [
{
"title": "Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty ...",
"url": "https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html",
"snippet": "The Fed shifted as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. Oil prices have increased more than 60%",
"published": null,
"score": 0.78493005
},
{
"title": "United States Interest Rate Outlook & Forecast - FocusEconomics",
"url": "https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/united-states/interest-rate",
"snippet": "The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the",
"published": null,
"score": 0.75723875
},
{
"title": "Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in Late 2025 - Congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12635",
"snippet": "In 2024, following a few lower monthly inflation readings, the Fed reduced rates three times between September and December 2024 with the goal",
"published": null,
"score": 0.6485337
},
{
"title": "Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Board",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm",
"snippet": "In November 2024, the Federal Reserve announced additional information about the periodic review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications\u2014the",
"published": null,
"score": 0.5272928
},
{
"title": "How Much Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates? - Morningstar",
"url": "https://www.morningstar.com/markets/when-will-fed-start-cutting-interest-rates",
"snippet": "We expect the Fed to resume cutting in the second half of 2025 and continue cutting intermittently through the end of 2027. Federal-funds rate:",
"published": null,
"score": 0.5272928
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook\"}"
},
{
"step": 2,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve 2026 interest rate projections economic forecasts inflation outlook",
"results": [
{
"title": "March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm",
"snippet": "* [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Federal R\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.8332299
},
{
"title": "Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies",
"url": "https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast",
"snippet": "[Skip to content](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#bodyWrapper). * [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rat\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.80442166
},
{
"title": "The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs",
"url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",
"snippet": "* [Global Institute](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute). * [Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges). * [The Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets). * [Top of Mind](https://www.gold\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.8016413
},
{
"title": "Forecasting the Fed's Forecasts - LinkedIn",
"url": "https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/forecasting-feds-forecasts-david-kelly-2hrie",
"snippet": "However, by the second half of 2026, assuming no further fiscal stimulus or tariff increases, inflation should drift down, with CPI inflation",
"published": null,
"score": 0.71425
},
{
"title": "What's The Fed's Next Move? | J.P. Morgan Global Research",
"url": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts",
"snippet": "[Skip to main content](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts#main). * [India](https://www.jpmorgan.com/IN/en/about-us). * [Malaysia](https://www.jpmorgan.com/MY/en/about-us). * * [Austria](https://www.jpmorgan.com/AT/en/about-us). *\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.71137124
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 interest rate projections economic forecasts inflation outlook\"}"
},
{
"step": 3,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve current interest rate 2024 2025 economic conditions inflation unemployment",
"results": [
{
"title": "The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Changes - UW-Stevens Point |",
"url": "https://blog.uwsp.edu/cps/2025/03/25/the-federal-reserve-and-interest-rate-changes",
"snippet": "In its September 2024 economic projections for 2025, the Federal Reserve expected the fed funds rate to be targeted at 3.4% by the end of 2025,",
"published": null,
"score": 0.8377398
},
{
"title": "Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank",
"url": "https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html",
"snippet": "The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to",
"published": null,
"score": 0.80844593
},
{
"title": "Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...",
"url": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025",
"snippet": "The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in May, holding the line at 4.25% to 4.5%, much like it did at the March meeting.",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7771143
},
{
"title": "Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 - Forbes",
"url": "https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history",
"snippet": "Fed Rate Cuts 2024-2026: Still Taming Inflation. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% following the",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7613083
},
{
"title": "Monetary Policy Report \u2013 June 2025 - Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2025-06-mpr-part2.htm",
"snippet": "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent since the beginning of the year",
"published": null,
"score": 0.73846215
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve current interest rate 2024 2025 economic conditions inflation unemployment\"}"
},
{
"step": 4,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve rate hike probability 2026 inflation expectations economic growth forecast",
"results": [
{
"title": "Markets see Fed's next move as potential hike as oil prices, inflation ...",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/markets-see-the-feds-next-move-as-a-potential-hike-as-oil-prices-inflation-fears-rise.html",
"snippet": "# Markets now see the Fed's next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount. Surging energy prices, rising import costs and mounting stagflation concerns are pushing markets to consider that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike. Traders in the futures\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.82048416
},
{
"title": "Traders Anticipate Fed Rate Hike as Inflation Surge Reshapes Rate ...",
"url": "https://www.gardinerlibrary.org/first-dry/Traders-Anticipate-Fed-Rate-Hike-as-Inflation-Surge-Reshapes-Rate-Cut-Expectations-21-6497",
"snippet": "... Fed Rate Hike as Inflation Surge Reshapes Rate Cut Expectations - Low Growth ... Fed would cut rates by mid-2026 to support economic growth.",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7458619
},
{
"title": "Traders anticipate an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in ...",
"url": "https://www.facebook.com/forbes/posts/traders-anticipate-an-interest-rate-hike-from-the-federal-reserve-in-2026-as-odd/1316488487007805",
"snippet": "## Forbes's Post. ### **Forbes**. Traders anticipate an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in 2026 as odds rose above 50% for the first time on Friday, according to the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch tool, fueled by growing fears of rising inflation as a result of the Iran war. Tr\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.74318707
},
{
"title": "Fed Rate Hike Expectations Resurface as Inflation Data Surprises ...",
"url": "https://bvwd.ca.gov/expert-time/Fed-Rate-Hike-Expectations-Resurface-as-Inflation-Data-Surprises-Markets-15-7048",
"snippet": "The fed funds futures market has reversed course dramatically, now pricing in a potential interest rate hike as soon as December 2026. This",
"published": null,
"score": 0.685971
},
{
"title": "The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs",
"url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",
"snippet": "* [Global Institute](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute). * [Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges). * [The Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets). * [Top of Mind](https://www.gold\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.6501347
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve rate hike probability 2026 inflation expectations economic growth forecast\"}"
},
{
"step": 5,
"action": "forecast",
"query": null,
"results": [],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.65,\"rationale\":\"Based on current evidence, there's a moderate-to-high probability of Fed rate hikes in 2026. Key factors: (1) Markets now price >50% chance of rate hikes by end-2026 due to inflation concerns from Iran war and rising oil prices ($110+ crude); (2) Fed currently holds rates at 4.25-4.5% after cutting 1.75% in 2024-2025; (3) Inflation pressures mounting from energy costs and tariff impacts; (4) Historical precedent shows Fed responds to persistent inflation with rate increases. However, uncertainty remains around economic growth, labor market conditions, and geopolitical developments that could shift policy direction.\"}"
}
],
"confidence": 0.3,
"sentiment": "bullish",
"key_findings": [],
"evidence_quality": "high",
"uncertainties": [
"However, uncertainty remains around economic growth, labor market conditions, and geopolitical developments that could shift policy direction"
],
"token_usage": {
"input_tokens": 23061,
"output_tokens": 274,
"total_tokens": 23335
},
"search_queries_made": 4,
"sources_consulted": 20
},
{
"agent_id": "agent_1",
"p_yes": 0.25,
"rationale": "Based on current evidence, the Fed has been cutting rates through 2024-2025, with the fed funds rate now at 3.50%-3.75% as of December 2025. Fed projections show expectations for only one rate cut in 2026, with inflation forecasts at 2.7% for both headline and core PCE by end-2026 - above the 2% target. Given persistent inflation above target, economic growth expectations of 2.4% for 2026, and the Fed's cautious stance, rate hikes in 2026 appear unlikely but possible if inflation accelerates significantly. Historical base rates show the Fed rarely hikes when inflation is moderating toward target, making this a lower probability event.",
"traces": [
{
"step": 1,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook inflation",
"results": [
{
"title": "Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank",
"url": "https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html",
"snippet": "The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to",
"published": null,
"score": 0.8364614
},
{
"title": "Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...",
"url": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025",
"snippet": "The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in May, holding the line at 4.25% to 4.5%, much like it did at the March meeting.",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7971311
},
{
"title": "December 10, 2025: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm",
"snippet": "As with real activity and inflation, the outlook for the future path of the federal funds rate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7574541
},
{
"title": "United States Interest Rate Outlook & Forecast - FocusEconomics",
"url": "https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/united-states/interest-rate",
"snippet": "The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7031221
},
{
"title": "Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in Late 2025 - Congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12635",
"snippet": "In 2024, following a few lower monthly inflation readings, the Fed reduced rates three times between September and December 2024 with the",
"published": null,
"score": 0.6937432
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook inflation\"}"
},
{
"step": 2,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve interest rates December 2025 current level fed funds rate target range",
"results": [
{
"title": "The Fed's December Decision to Cut Interest Rates by 0.25%",
"url": "https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/fed-interest-rate-cut-impacts.aspx",
"snippet": "On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% \u2013 3.75%.",
"published": null,
"score": 0.9274752
},
{
"title": "The Fed - Monetary Policy: - Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20251210.htm",
"snippet": "Consistent with the Committee's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4* percent, the Board of Governors",
"published": null,
"score": 0.917251
},
{
"title": "Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 - Forbes",
"url": "https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history",
"snippet": "Fed Rate Cuts 2024-2026: Still Taming Inflation ; Dec. 10, 2025. -25. 3.50% to 3.75% ; Oct 29, 2025. -25. 3.75% to 4.00% ; Sept 17, 2025. -25. 4.00",
"published": null,
"score": 0.779339
},
{
"title": "Fed Funds Interest Rate (1954-2026) - Macrotrends",
"url": "https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart",
"snippet": "Chart ; 2026-01-05, 3.64% ; 2026-01-02, 3.64% ; 2025-12-31, 3.64% ; 2025-12-30, 3.64%.",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7680558
},
{
"title": "Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty ...",
"url": "https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html",
"snippet": "The Federal Reserve held its target federal funds interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the April meeting, a widely anticipated outcome.",
"published": null,
"score": 0.6493346
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates December 2025 current level fed funds rate target range\"}"
},
{
"step": 3,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve 2026 economic projections inflation outlook rate hike expectations",
"results": [
{
"title": "Federal Reserve keeps rate cut forecasts steady as economic growth, inflation outlooks rise",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-cut-forecasts-steady-as-economic-growth-inflation-outlooks-rise-181628371.html",
"snippet": "3. Best money market accounts. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it expects to cut rates once in 2026 while officials anticipate faster economic growth and hotter inflation this year than previously forecast. The central bank's latest policy decision on Wednesday \u2014 which saw\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.87807417
},
{
"title": "March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm",
"snippet": "* [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Federal R\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7613083
},
{
"title": "Many economists expect the Fed will forecast that inflation will ...",
"url": "https://www.facebook.com/newshour/posts/many-economists-expect-the-fed-will-forecast-that-inflation-will-remain-as-high-/1398802412115001",
"snippet": "# PBS NewsHour - Many economists expect the Fed will... ## PBS NewsHour's Post. ### **PBS NewsHour**. Many economists expect the Fed will forecast that inflation will remain as high as 3% even by late 2026. An increase of that magnitude could be hard to square with more interest-\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7373288
},
{
"title": "The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs",
"url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",
"snippet": "* [Global Institute](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute). * [Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges). * [The Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets). * [Top of Mind](https://www.gold\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.7171114
},
{
"title": "The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy",
"url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president/remarks/2026/economic-outlook-monetary-policy-aei",
"snippet": "[Skip to Main](https://www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president/remarks/2026/economic-outlook-monetary-policy-aei#frbstl-content). [ FRASER U.S. Financial, economic, and\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.64047897
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 economic projections inflation outlook rate hike expectations\"}"
},
{
"step": 4,
"action": "search",
"query": "Federal Reserve inflation expectations 2026 PCE core inflation target economic conditions",
"results": [
{
"title": "March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm",
"snippet": "* [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Federal R\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.72184175
},
{
"title": "United States Core PCE Price Index MoM",
"url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-mom",
"snippet": "[](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-mom). [](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-mom). [Markets](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-mom#). [Forecasts](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-state\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.6824261
},
{
"title": "What Is PCE? Explaining the Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure",
"url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-study/inflation/2026/05/20/what-is-pce-explaining-the-feds-preferred-inflation-measure",
"snippet": "[Skip to Content](https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-study/inflation/2026/05/20/what-is-pce-explaining-the-feds-preferred-inflation-measure#main-content). * [History](https://www.atlantafed.org/who-we-are/atlanta-fed-history). * [Banking](https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-st\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.62879556
},
{
"title": "Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, as expected, Fed's ...",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/core-inflation-hit-an-annual-rate-of-3point3percent-in-april-as-expected-feds-preferred-gauge-shows-.html",
"snippet": "[Skip Navigation](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/core-inflation-hit-an-annual-rate-of-3point3percent-in-april-as-expected-feds-preferred-gauge-shows-.html#MainContent). [Markets](https://www.cnbc.com/markets/). * [U.S. Markets](https://www.cnbc.com/us-markets/). * [Currencie\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.6002124
},
{
"title": "The Fed - Inflation (PCE) - Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-inflation-pce.htm",
"snippet": "[Skip to main content](https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-inflation-pce.htm#content). * [Publications](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications.htm). * [A-Z index](https://www.federalreserve.gov/azindex.htm). * [Careers](https://www.federalreserve.gov/car\u2026",
"published": null,
"score": 0.44869256
}
],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve inflation expectations 2026 PCE core inflation target economic conditions\"}"
},
{
"step": 5,
"action": "forecast",
"query": null,
"results": [],
"llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.25,\"rationale\":\"Based on current evidence, the Fed has been cutting rates through 2024-2025, with the fed funds rate now at 3.50%-3.75% as of December 2025. Fed projections show expectations for only one rate cut in 2026, with inflation forecasts at 2.7% for both headline and core PCE by end-2026 - above the 2% target. Given persistent inflation above target, economic growth expectations of 2.4% for 2026, and the Fed's cautious stance, rate hikes in 2026 appear unlikely but possible if inflation accelerates significantly. Historical base rates show the Fed rarely hikes when inflation is moderating toward target, making this a lower probability event.\"}"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"sentiment": "bearish",
"key_findings": [],
"evidence_quality": "high",
"uncertainties": [
"4% for 2026, and the Fed's cautious stance, rate hikes in 2026 appear unlikely but possible if inflation accelerates significantly"
],
"token_usage": {
"input_tokens": 18648,
"output_tokens": 283,
"total_tokens": 18931
},
"search_queries_made": 4,
"sources_consulted": 20
}
],
"aggregation": null,
"debate": null,
"supervisor": null,
"final_probability": null,
"final_confidence": null,
"llm_calls": [
{
"seq": 0,
"label": "agent_0",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook\"}",
"input_tokens": 239,
"output_tokens": 25,
"total_tokens": 264,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:16:54+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 1,
"label": "agent_0",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty ...\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html\n The Fed shifted as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. Oil prices have increased more than 60%\n\n2. United States Interest Rate Outlook & Forecast - FocusEconomics\n URL: https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/united-states/interest-rate\n The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the\n\n3. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in Late 2025 - Congress.gov\n URL: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12635\n In 2024, fo\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 interest rate projections economic forecasts inflation outlook\"}",
"input_tokens": 673,
"output_tokens": 26,
"total_tokens": 699,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:16:57+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 2,
"label": "agent_0",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty ...\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html\n The Fed shifted as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. Oil prices have increased more than 60%\n\n2. United States Interest Rate Outlook & Forecast - FocusEconomics\n URL: https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/united-states/interest-rate\n The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the\n\n3. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in Late 2025 - Congress.gov\n URL: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12635\n In 2024, fo\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 interest rate projections economic forecasts inflation outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm\n * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Federal Reserve's Key Policies for the Provision of Financial Services](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/pfs_about.htm). # [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System _The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system._](https://www.federalreserve.gov/\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve current interest rate 2024 2025 economic conditions inflation unemployment\"}",
"input_tokens": 5904,
"output_tokens": 27,
"total_tokens": 5931,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:00+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 3,
"label": "agent_0",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty ...\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html\n The Fed shifted as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. Oil prices have increased more than 60%\n\n2. United States Interest Rate Outlook & Forecast - FocusEconomics\n URL: https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/united-states/interest-rate\n The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the\n\n3. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in Late 2025 - Congress.gov\n URL: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12635\n In 2024, fo\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 interest rate projections economic forecasts inflation outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm\n * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Federal Reserve's Key Policies for the Provision of Financial Services](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/pfs_about.htm). # [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System _The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system._](https://www.federalreserve.gov/\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve current interest rate 2024 2025 economic conditions inflation unemployment\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Changes - UW-Stevens Point |\n URL: https://blog.uwsp.edu/cps/2025/03/25/the-federal-reserve-and-interest-rate-changes\n In its September 2024 economic projections for 2025, the Federal Reserve expected the fed funds rate to be targeted at 3.4% by the end of 2025,\n\n2. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html\n The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to\n\n3. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...\n URL: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025\n Th\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve rate hike probability 2026 inflation expectations economic growth forecast\"}",
"input_tokens": 6392,
"output_tokens": 26,
"total_tokens": 6418,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:03+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 4,
"label": "agent_0",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty ...\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html\n The Fed shifted as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. Oil prices have increased more than 60%\n\n2. United States Interest Rate Outlook & Forecast - FocusEconomics\n URL: https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/united-states/interest-rate\n The federal funds target rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, compared to the end-2023 value of 5.50% and the figure a decade earlier of 0.25%. It averaged 2.02% over the\n\n3. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates in Late 2025 - Congress.gov\n URL: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12635\n In 2024, fo\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 interest rate projections economic forecasts inflation outlook\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. March 18, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm\n * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). * [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). * [Federal Reserve's Key Policies for the Provision of Financial Services](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/pfs_about.htm). # [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System _The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system._](https://www.federalreserve.gov/\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve current interest rate 2024 2025 economic conditions inflation unemployment\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Changes - UW-Stevens Point |\n URL: https://blog.uwsp.edu/cps/2025/03/25/the-federal-reserve-and-interest-rate-changes\n In its September 2024 economic projections for 2025, the Federal Reserve expected the fed funds rate to be targeted at 3.4% by the end of 2025,\n\n2. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html\n The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to\n\n3. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...\n URL: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025\n Th\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve rate hike probability 2026 inflation expectations economic growth forecast\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Markets see Fed's next move as potential hike as oil prices, inflation ...\n URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/markets-see-the-feds-next-move-as-a-potential-hike-as-oil-prices-inflation-fears-rise.html\n # Markets now see the Fed's next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount. Surging energy prices, rising import costs and mounting stagflation concerns are pushing markets to consider that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike. Traders in the futures market pushed the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning, the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool. The move comes as global benchmark crude prices topped $110, adding to a series of developments this week s\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.65,\"rationale\":\"Based on current evidence, there's a moderate-to-high probability of Fed rate hikes in 2026. Key factors: (1) Markets now price >50% chance of rate hikes by end-2026 due to inflation concerns from Iran war and rising oil prices ($110+ crude); (2) Fed currently holds rates at 4.25-4.5% after cutting 1.75% in 2024-2025; (3) Inflation pressures mounting from energy costs and tariff impacts; (4) Historical precedent shows Fed responds to persistent inflation with rate increases. However, uncertainty remains around economic growth, labor market conditions, and geopolitical developments that could shift policy direction.\"}",
"input_tokens": 9853,
"output_tokens": 170,
"total_tokens": 10023,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:10+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 5,
"label": "agent_1",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook inflation\"}",
"input_tokens": 239,
"output_tokens": 26,
"total_tokens": 265,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:12+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 6,
"label": "agent_1",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook inflation\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html\n The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to\n\n2. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...\n URL: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025\n The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in May, holding the line at 4.25% to 4.5%, much like it did at the March meeting.\n\n3. December 10, 2025: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm\n As with\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates December 2025 current level fed funds rate target range\"}",
"input_tokens": 703,
"output_tokens": 27,
"total_tokens": 730,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:14+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 7,
"label": "agent_1",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook inflation\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html\n The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to\n\n2. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...\n URL: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025\n The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in May, holding the line at 4.25% to 4.5%, much like it did at the March meeting.\n\n3. December 10, 2025: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm\n As with\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates December 2025 current level fed funds rate target range\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Fed's December Decision to Cut Interest Rates by 0.25%\n URL: https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/fed-interest-rate-cut-impacts.aspx\n On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% \u2013 3.75%.\n\n2. The Fed - Monetary Policy: - Federal Reserve\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20251210.htm\n Consistent with the Committee's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4* percent, the Board of Governors\n\n3. Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 - Forbes\n URL: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history\n Fed Rate Cuts 2024-2026: Still Taming Inflation ; Dec. 10, 2025. -25. 3.50% to 3.75% ; Oct 2\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 economic projections inflation outlook rate hike expectations\"}",
"input_tokens": 1226,
"output_tokens": 26,
"total_tokens": 1252,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:17+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 8,
"label": "agent_1",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2024 2025 current policy outlook inflation\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy | U.S. Bank\n URL: https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html\n The Fed later shifted course as inflation slowed, cutting its target interest rate by 1.75% through 2024 and 2025. From late February to\n\n2. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at May 2025 Meeting, Looks to ...\n URL: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-may-2025\n The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in May, holding the line at 4.25% to 4.5%, much like it did at the March meeting.\n\n3. December 10, 2025: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm\n As with\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates December 2025 current level fed funds rate target range\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Fed's December Decision to Cut Interest Rates by 0.25%\n URL: https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/fed-interest-rate-cut-impacts.aspx\n On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% \u2013 3.75%.\n\n2. The Fed - Monetary Policy: - Federal Reserve\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20251210.htm\n Consistent with the Committee's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4* percent, the Board of Governors\n\n3. Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 - Forbes\n URL: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history\n Fed Rate Cuts 2024-2026: Still Taming Inflation ; Dec. 10, 2025. -25. 3.50% to 3.75% ; Oct 2\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 economic projections inflation outlook rate hike expectations\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Federal Reserve keeps rate cut forecasts steady as economic growth, inflation outlooks rise\n URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-cut-forecasts-steady-as-economic-growth-inflation-outlooks-rise-181628371.html\n 3. Best money market accounts. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it expects to cut rates once in 2026 while officials anticipate faster economic growth and hotter inflation this year than previously forecast. The central bank's latest policy decision on Wednesday \u2014 which saw the Fed keep rates unchanged in a range of 3.5%-3.75% \u2014 also came alongside the release of the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The SEP includes forecasts for growth, inflation, the labor market, and interest rates from members of the Federal\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve inflation expectations 2026 PCE core inflation target economic conditions\"}",
"input_tokens": 5103,
"output_tokens": 26,
"total_tokens": 5129,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:17:20+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 9,
"label": "agent_1",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
Vollständig mit Quellenangabe unter der Lizenz der Quelle angezeigt. Lizenz: MIT
Diese Zusammenfassung wurde vom Research-Agenten von Stratmill anhand des Originals verfasst; sie ist keine Kopie der Quelle.