Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
1,232 documents
This weekly report reviews crypto derivatives after a sharp Bitcoin spot decline. It connects the selloff with a weaker risk appetite reading, a renewed run of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and defensive positioning in options and perpetual futures. It also…
This weekly report summarizes BTC and ETH derivatives conditions across futures yields, perpetual funding, implied volatility, volatility surfaces, and put-call skew. It describes positive implied spot yields in both assets, quieter funding, and declining…
The article presents a bearish conditional case for Ether while remaining more constructive on Bitcoin. It argues that a break of ETH’s cited support could expose lower technical levels and trigger liquidations. The author points to ETH’s recent…
This market note reviews subdued BTC and ETH prices ahead of an anticipated spot Ether ETF launch. It relates price weakness to macro signals, BTC miner and holder selling, and uncertainty about ETF inflows. The options discussion describes softer implied…
The document explains how an options chain can display an expected price range for each expiry, using the underlying price and at-the-money implied volatility. It interprets the range as an estimated one-standard-deviation move: under the assumed model, the…
This commentary explains a rapid flattening in Bitcoin option volatility smiles at the one-month and two-week tenors. It interprets the SABR VolVol parameter as a measure of smile steepness and compares snapshots across expiries. At the shorter tenors,…
The article argues that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could increase institutional participation and put downward pressure on implied volatility. It connects that forecast to a gap between realized and implied volatility, the distribution of outstanding puts…
This commentary compares short-dated Bitcoin and Ether option volatility smiles after two weekend rallies. It uses 25-delta put-call skew and SABR smile snapshots to describe how implied volatility differs across out-of-the-money puts, at-the-money options,…
This weekly derivatives report summarizes BTC and ETH futures, perpetual funding, and options markets. Its central observation is that implied volatility beyond the end of January is elevated relative to shorter expiries, while longer-dated option skews…
This founders’ account describes a flash crash caused by a fault in the exchange’s BTC index calculation. An outlier constituent was not excluded as intended, driving an exchange price drop and triggering liquidations and stop-loss orders that the exchange…
This market commentary combines macro context with crypto options indicators to argue that Bitcoin may outperform Ether in a broader-market rally. It discusses realized and implied volatility, the volatility risk premium, term structure, risk reversals,…
The document connects optimism around spot Ether ETF approval with a directional options trade. It describes buying a call at a lower strike and selling a call at a higher strike with the same expiry, creating a net-debit bull call spread. The example uses…
This market commentary reviews crypto trading conditions after a Federal Reserve rate decision, focusing on BTC and ETH volatility, options skew, flows, and dealer gamma. It describes constrained liquidity and rangebound spot prices alongside differing…
This commentary compares Bitcoin and Ether options using at-the-money implied volatility across maturities, realized volatility, and one-month risk reversals. At the September 2023 snapshot, ETH implied volatility was reported below BTC’s throughout the…
This commentary examines the slope of Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility curve, comparing one-week options with six-month options. It describes a widening gap as short-dated implied volatility falls more quickly than longer-dated volatility, with both…
Perpetual swaps lack the expiry date that helps conventional futures converge with spot, so funding payments between long and short holders are used to encourage the contract price back toward its index. When the swap trades below the index, shorts pay…
This podcast episode surveys crypto derivatives and institutional Bitcoin strategies against a backdrop of easing geopolitical tensions, stablecoin regulation, and expectations for possible rate cuts. The hosts and guests discuss differences between trading…
This commentary separates a Bitcoin-led rally, associated with expectations for a spot ETF, from a broader crypto and risk-asset advance that coincided with stronger equities. It compares Bitcoin and Ethereum performance, BTC dominance, and gains in several…
This podcast listing outlines a discussion of Bitcoin’s rally amid ETF inflows and anticipation of the halving, alongside macroeconomic influences such as hotter inflation data and US debt. The hosts also cover how crypto markets relate to technology stocks,…
This market note describes Bitcoin option positioning after a rally toward 76,000 and a sharp spot retracement. Rather than apparent profit-taking in calls, the author reports buying in the 50,000–60,000 put area and put spreads across March, April, and…
This commentary compares Bitcoin and Ether derivatives after the announcement of spot Bitcoin ETF approval. It reports that annualized futures-implied yields declined from earlier leveraged-long highs but stayed above 10% across maturities. Shorter-tenor…
This weekly market commentary tracks Bitcoin and Ether options around the Federal Reserve meeting and US employment report. It describes implied volatility falling after the expected rate increase and Powell’s hawkish remarks, alongside selling in Bitcoin…
The document explains a change in which in-the-money options first settle into futures contracts, and those futures then settle in cash. It applies initially to linear USDC-settled options, with inverse coin-settled options planned later. The settlement…
The article estimates how a US spot Bitcoin ETF could affect Bitcoin prices by comparing possible flows with the market capitalization of existing gold ETFs. It proposes that a portion of gold ETF holdings could move into Bitcoin, then uses changes in…