Alocação robusta de carteira com shrinkage e métodos baseados em risco

# 03_robust_optimization.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # Allocations that estimate less
#
# **Docker image**: `ml4t`
#
# ## Purpose
# `02_mean_variance_optimization` ends on a problem: the optimizer's answer is dominated by the
# input estimated worst, and it responds by putting almost everything into two assets. The
# responses to that problem fall into two families, and this notebook runs both.
#
# The first improves the estimate. Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage pulls the sample covariance towards a
# structured target, accepting a known bias in exchange for far less variation from sample to
# sample. The second changes the objective so it needs less. Risk parity, minimum variance and
# minimum conditional drawdown all drop the expected-return vector entirely and optimize against
# risk alone; equal weight optimizes against nothing.
#
# Every one of them is fitted on a training window, frozen, and scored on a later one, alongside
# an execution bridge that says what implementing one of them would have cost.
#
# ## Learning objectives
#
# - Fit a shrunk covariance estimator and say what the shrinkage buys and what it costs.
# - Build allocations that equalize risk contribution, minimize variance, and minimize tail loss,
#   and say which inputs each one needs.
# - Measure concentration as a number rather than by eye, and use it to compare methods that
#   estimate different amounts.
# - Check whether an allocation fitted to a training drawdown actually has a shallow one later.
#
# ## Book reference
# Chapter 17, Section 17.5 (Mean-variance optimization and the Markowitz curse).
#
# ## Prerequisites
#
# - `02_mean_variance_optimization`, which sets up the problem these methods answer.
# - Daily ETF prices from the canonical dataset.

# %% [markdown]
# ## Setup

# %%
"""Compare Riskfolio-Lib allocators with Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage, risk contributions, rolling Sharpe, and an execution bridge."""

import cvxpy.reductions.matrix_stuffing as cvxpy_matrix_stuffing
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import plotly.graph_objects as go
import polars as pl
import riskfolio as rp
from cvxpy.problems.problem import Problem as _CvxpyProblem
from ml4t.backtest import (
    BacktestConfig,
    CommissionType,
    DataFeed,
    Engine,
    ExecutionMode,
    Strategy,
)
from ml4t.backtest.config import SlippageType
from ml4t.backtest.execution.rebalancer import RebalanceConfig, TargetWeightExecutor

# Evaluation
from ml4t.diagnostic.evaluation import (
    PortfolioAnalysis,
)

from data import load_etfs
from utils.reproducibility import set_global_seeds
from utils.style import COLORS, ml4t_diverging, ml4t_palette, show_plotly_with_alt

# %% [markdown]
# Riskfolio-Lib reaches CVXPY through an interface that changed across CVXPY versions, so the
# check below reports a version mismatch as an environment problem rather than letting it surface
# later as an unexplained solver failure.


# %%
missing_cvxpy_symbols = [
    name
    for name in ("extract_lower_bounds", "extract_upper_bounds")
    if not hasattr(cvxpy_matrix_stuffing, name)
]
if not hasattr(_CvxpyProblem, "_supports_cpp"):
    missing_cvxpy_symbols.append("Problem._supports_cpp")
if missing_cvxpy_symbols:
    raise RuntimeError(
        "Incompatible cvxpy runtime for Riskfolio-Lib. Install the supported CVXPY stack. "
        f"Missing symbols: {missing_cvxpy_symbols}"
    )

# %% tags=["parameters"]
# Production defaults; Papermill overrides for CI testing
SEED = 42
TRAIN_END = "2019-12-31"
COMMISSION_RATE = 0.0005
SLIPPAGE_RATE = 0.0005

# %%
set_global_seeds(SEED)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 1. Data Acquisition
#
# Eleven exchange-traded funds, one per broad exposure, as `ETF_UNIVERSE` below declares them: the
# S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100 and the Russell 2000 in US equity; developed and emerging markets outside
# the US; the US aggregate bond index, long-dated Treasuries and high-yield corporates in fixed
# income; and gold, property and commodities. Each is already a diversified basket, so allocating across them
# is an asset-allocation decision and the estimation problem shows up without the separate problem
# of picking individual securities. The narrower universe is deliberate: eleven assets need 55
# covariances estimated where the previous notebook's thirty need 435.

# %%
# Multi-asset ETF universe
ETF_UNIVERSE = {
    # US Equity
    "SPY": "S&P 500",
    "QQQ": "NASDAQ 100",
    "IWM": "Russell 2000",
    # International Equity
    "EFA": "EAFE (Developed)",
    "EEM": "Emerging Markets",
    # Fixed Income
    "AGG": "US Aggregate Bond",
    "TLT": "Long Treasury",
    "HYG": "High Yield Corporate",
    # Alternatives
    "GLD": "Gold",
    "VNQ": "Real Estate",
    "DBC": "Commodities",
}

SYMBOLS = list(ETF_UNIVERSE.keys())
START_DATE = "2015-01-01"
END_DATE = "2023-12-31"

# %%
# Load the fixed teaching universe from canonical ETF data.
etf_data = load_etfs(symbols=SYMBOLS, start_date=START_DATE, end_date=END_DATE)
prices = (
    etf_data.select(["timestamp", "symbol", "close"])
    .pivot(on="symbol", index="timestamp", values="close")
    .sort("timestamp")
    .fill_null(strategy="forward")
    .drop_nulls()
    .select(["timestamp", *SYMBOLS])
)
close_prices = prices.to_pandas().set_index("timestamp")
print(f"Loaded {len(close_prices):,} days for {close_prices.shape[1]} ETFs")

# %%
# Compute returns once so the first test return retains the final training close as its denominator.
returns = close_prices.pct_change().dropna()
train_returns = returns.loc[:TRAIN_END]
test_returns = returns.loc[returns.index > TRAIN_END]

if train_returns.empty or test_returns.empty:
    raise ValueError("Both train and test windows must contain returns")
if train_returns.index.max() >= test_returns.index.min():
    raise ValueError("Train and test windows overlap")

print(
    f"Training returns: {train_returns.index.min().date()} to "
    f"{train_returns.index.max().date()} ({len(train_returns):,} observations)"
)
print(
    f"Test returns: {test_returns.index.min().date()} to "
    f"{test_returns.index.max().date()} ({len(test_returns):,} observations)"
)

# %% [markdown]
# This fixed universe intentionally mixes equities, duration, credit, and real assets.
# It uses current-vintage ETF history rather than point-in-time historical membership,
# so the exercise demonstrates allocator mechanics rather than a survivorship-free strategy test.

# %% [markdown]
# ## 2. Correlation Analysis
#
# Only training observations enter the correlation map and every fitted allocator below.

# %%
# Training-period correlation matrix with the redundant upper triangle masked.
corr_matrix = train_returns.corr()
corr_values = corr_matrix.to_numpy()
mask = np.triu(np.ones_like(corr_values, dtype=bool), k=1)
heatmap_values = np.where(mask, np.nan, corr_values)
heatmap_text = np.where(mask, "", np.round(corr_values, 2).astype(str))
off_diagonal = corr_matrix.where(~np.eye(len(corr_matrix), dtype=bool)).stack()
strongest_pair = off_diagonal.idxmax()
print(
    f"Most correlated pair: {ETF_UNIVERSE[strongest_pair[0]]} and "
    f"{ETF_UNIVERSE[strongest_pair[1]]}, at {float(off_diagonal.max()):.2f}"
)

fig = go.Figure(
    data=go.Heatmap(
        z=heatmap_values,
        x=[ETF_UNIVERSE[s] for s in corr_matrix.columns],
        y=[ETF_UNIVERSE[s] for s in corr_matrix.index],
        colorscale=ml4t_diverging(),
        zmid=0,
        zmin=-1,
        zmax=1,
        text=heatmap_text,
        texttemplate="%{text}",
        textfont={"size": 10},
        hoverongaps=False,
        colorbar=dict(title="Correlation"),
    )
)

fig.update_layout(
    title="Correlation clusters by asset class, which is what shrinkage exploits",
    height=550,
    margin=dict(l=135, b=125, r=40),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Lower-triangle correlation heatmap of eleven ETFs over the training window, each cell labelled, with warm blocks within the equity funds and cooler values between equities and long Treasuries.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 3. Six allocations, and what each one has to estimate
#
# All six are fitted on the training window and never see a test observation. Expected returns,
# where a method needs them, are the training-window sample means; the covariance, where a method
# needs one, is the Ledoit-Wolf shrunk estimate rather than the raw sample matrix. The hurdle rate
# is zero throughout, so every Sharpe ratio below is a raw return-to-risk ratio.
#
# The risk parity objective minimizes
# the dispersion of risk contributions:
#
# $$\min_w \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( w_i \cdot (\Sigma w)_i - \frac{w^\top \Sigma w}{N} \right)^2$$
#
# where $(\Sigma w)_i$ is asset $i$'s marginal risk contribution. At optimality, each asset
# contributes equally to portfolio variance.
#
# 1. **Mean-Variance (Max Sharpe)** needs both inputs: the expected-return vector and the
#    covariance.
# 2. **Minimum Variance** needs the covariance only.
# 3. **Risk Parity**, also called equal risk contribution, needs the covariance only.
# 4. **Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP)** needs the covariance only, and reads it as a tree of
#    correlation clusters rather than inverting it. `06_hierarchical_risk_parity` builds it from
#    parts; here it is one more allocator in the comparison.
# 5. **Min CDaR** needs neither. **Conditional drawdown at risk** is the average of the worst
#    drawdowns a return path went through - the tail of the drawdown distribution rather than of
#    the return distribution - and minimizing it works directly on the realized path, not on a
#    covariance estimate.
# 6. **Equal Weight** needs nothing at all, and is the benchmark the other five have to beat.
#
# Riskfolio-Lib names an objective by a pair of strings, a risk measure and what to do with it, so
# the table below is the translation from four of those six into the calls that produce them.
# Hierarchical risk parity takes a different entry point and equal weight needs no solver, so both
# are handled separately in the function underneath.


# %%
OPTIMIZATION_SPECS = {
    "max_sharpe": {
        "name": "Max Sharpe (MVO)",
        "call": lambda port: port.optimization(
            model="Classic", rm="MV", obj="Sharpe", rf=0, hist=True
        ),
    },
    "min_variance": {
        "name": "Minimum Variance",
        "call": lambda port: port.optimization(
            model="Classic", rm="MV", obj="MinRisk", rf=0, hist=True
        ),
    },
    "risk_parity": {
        "name": "Risk Parity",
        "call": lambda port: port.rp_optimization(model="Classic", rm="MV", rf=0, hist=True),
    },
    "min_cdar": {
        "name": "Min CDaR",
        "call": lambda port: port.optimization(
            model="Classic", rm="CDaR", obj="MinRisk", rf=0, hist=True
        ),
    },
}


# %%
def optimize_portfolio(method: str, fit_returns: pd.DataFrame) -> dict:
    """Fit one robust allocation method on the supplied return window."""
    if method == "equal_weight":
        weights = {symbol: 1 / len(SYMBOLS) for symbol in SYMBOLS}
        return {"name": "Equal Weight", "weights": weights, "covariance": None}

    if method == "hrp":
        w = rp.HCPortfolio(returns=fit_returns).optimization(
            model="HRP",
            codependence="pearson",
            rm="MV",
            rf=0,
            linkage="ward",
            max_k=10,
            leaf_order=True,
            method_cov="ledoit",
        )
        weights = w["weights"].to_dict() if w is not None else None
        return {"name": "HRP", "weights": weights, "covariance": None}

    if method not in OPTIMIZATION_SPECS:
        raise ValueError(f"Unknown method: {method}")

    port = rp.Portfolio(returns=fit_returns)
    port.assets_stats(method_mu="hist", method_cov="ledoit")
    spec = OPTIMIZATION_SPECS[method]
    w = spec["call"](port)

    return {
        "name": spec["name"],
        "weights": w["weights"].to_dict() if w is not None else None,
        "covariance": port.cov.copy(),
    }


# %% [markdown]
# Reject incomplete or invalid solver output before it reaches a figure or performance metric.


# %%
def validate_weights(method: str, weights: dict[str, float]) -> None:
    """Validate symbol coverage, finiteness, long-only bounds, and the budget."""
    if set(weights) != set(SYMBOLS):
        missing = sorted(set(SYMBOLS) - set(weights))
        extra = sorted(set(weights) - set(SYMBOLS))
        raise ValueError(f"{method} returned incomplete symbols: missing={missing}, extra={extra}")

    ordered = np.array([weights[symbol] for symbol in SYMBOLS], dtype=float)
    if not np.isfinite(ordered).all():
        raise ValueError(f"{method} returned non-finite weights")
    if ordered.min() < -1e-8:
        raise ValueError(f"{method} violated the long-only boundary")
    if not np.isclose(ordered.sum(), 1.0, atol=1e-6):
        raise ValueError(f"{method} weights sum to {ordered.sum():.8f}, not one")


# %%
# Fit every data-driven allocator on training observations and freeze the weights.
METHODS = [
    "max_sharpe",
    "min_variance",
    "risk_parity",
    "hrp",
    "min_cdar",
    "equal_weight",
]

results = {}
for method in METHODS:
    result = optimize_portfolio(method, train_returns)
    if result["weights"] is None:
        raise RuntimeError(f"{method} optimization returned no weights.")
    validate_weights(method, result["weights"])
    results[method] = result
    print(f"  {result['name']}: fitted on {len(train_returns):,} training returns")

# %% [markdown]
# ## 5. Weight Comparison

# %%
# Construct all weight arrays by symbol key rather than dictionary insertion order.
weight_matrix = np.array(
    [[results[method]["weights"].get(symbol, 0.0) for symbol in SYMBOLS] for method in METHODS]
)
method_names = [results[method]["name"] for method in METHODS]
effective_n = {
    results[method]["name"]: 1 / np.square(weight_matrix[position]).sum()
    for position, method in enumerate(METHODS)
}
top_weights = {
    results[method]["name"]: float(weight_matrix[position].max())
    for position, method in enumerate(METHODS)
}

# %% [markdown]
# The heatmap shows where each method puts capital. The same symbol order drives both axes
# and values, so an optimizer's internal dictionary order cannot relabel an asset.

# %%
fig = go.Figure(
    data=go.Heatmap(
        z=weight_matrix,
        x=[ETF_UNIVERSE[symbol] for symbol in SYMBOLS],
        y=method_names,
        colorscale=ml4t_palette(5)[::-1],
        zmin=0,
        zmax=float(weight_matrix.max()),
        text=np.round(weight_matrix, 2),
        texttemplate="%{text:.2f}",
        colorbar=dict(title="Weight"),
    )
)
fig.update_layout(
    title="Training-only optimizers allocate capital in markedly different ways",
    xaxis_title="Asset",
    yaxis_title="Allocation method",
    height=470,
    margin=dict(l=130, b=120, r=40),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Heatmap of portfolio weight, one row per allocation method and one column per ETF, each cell labelled with its weight.",
)

# %%
concentration_order = sorted(effective_n, key=effective_n.get)
fig = go.Figure(
    go.Bar(
        x=[effective_n[name] for name in concentration_order],
        y=concentration_order,
        orientation="h",
        marker_color=[
            COLORS["amber"] if name == "Equal Weight" else COLORS["blue"]
            for name in concentration_order
        ],
        text=[f"{effective_n[name]:.1f}" for name in concentration_order],
        textposition="outside",
    )
)
fig.update_layout(
    title="An objective without a diversification term concentrates",
    xaxis_title=r"Effective positions, $N_{eff}=1/\sum_i w_i^2$",
    yaxis_title="Allocation method",
    height=420,
    showlegend=False,
    margin=dict(l=135, r=40),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Horizontal bars of effective positions per allocation method, sorted from the most concentrated to the least, with equal weight highlighted at the top of the range.",
)

# %%
for name, positions in sorted(effective_n.items(), key=lambda item: item[1]):
    print(
        f"{name:<20} {positions:5.2f} effective positions, largest weight {top_weights[name]:.1%}"
    )

# %% [markdown]
# Effective positions is the inverse of the sum of squared weights: an allocation split evenly
# across five assets has five, one that puts everything in a single asset has one.
#
# The ordering is not the one the previous notebook would suggest. Dropping the expected-return
# vector does not fix concentration: minimum variance and minimum conditional drawdown hold *fewer*
# effective positions than maximum Sharpe, because an objective that minimizes a risk number loads
# into the single lowest-risk asset exactly as hard as one that maximizes a return ratio loads into
# the highest-return one. Both are corner solutions of an objective with nothing pulling the other
# way.
#
# What separates the top of this list from the bottom is whether diversification is in the
# objective at all. Risk parity requires every asset to contribute equally to risk, so it cannot
# put most of the book in one name. Hierarchical risk parity splits the budget down a tree of correlation clusters,
# which spreads it less evenly but still spreads it. Equal weight assumes the answer. Estimating
# less is worth doing for stability, and it is a different thing from being diversified.

# %% [markdown]
# ## 6. Backtest Each Portfolio


# %%
def backtest_portfolio(weights: dict[str, float], evaluation_returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
    """Apply frozen symbol-keyed target weights to each evaluation-period return."""
    weight_series = pd.Series(
        {symbol: float(weights[symbol]) for symbol in evaluation_returns.columns},
        dtype=float,
    )
    return evaluation_returns @ weight_series


# Apply every frozen allocation to the later test returns without selecting a method.
portfolio_returns = {}
for method, result in results.items():
    port_ret = backtest_portfolio(result["weights"], test_returns)
    portfolio_returns[result["name"]] = port_ret

returns_df = pd.DataFrame(portfolio_returns)
print(f"Frozen-weight test: {returns_df.index[0].date()} to {returns_df.index[-1].date()}")

# %%
cumulative = (1 + returns_df).cumprod()
fig = go.Figure()
method_colors = {
    "Max Sharpe (MVO)": COLORS["neutral"],
    "Minimum Variance": COLORS["slate"],
    "Risk Parity": COLORS["blue"],
    "HRP": COLORS["copper"],
    "Min CDaR": COLORS["positive"],
    "Equal Weight": COLORS["amber"],
}
for col in cumulative.columns:
    fig.add_trace(
        go.Scatter(
            x=cumulative.index,
            y=cumulative[col],
            name=col,
            line=dict(
                color=method_colors[col],
                width=3 if col in {"Risk Parity", "Equal Weight"} else 1.5,
            ),
        )
    )

fig.update_layout(
    title="Every weight here was fixed before the window it is scored on",
    xaxis_title="Date",
    yaxis_title="Growth of $1",
    height=500,
    legend=dict(yanchor="top", y=0.99, xanchor="left", x=0.01, bgcolor=COLORS["bg_light"]),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Six growth-of-one-dollar paths over the test window, one per frozen allocation, with risk parity and equal weight drawn thicker than the rest.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 7. Performance Comparison

# %%
# Compute numeric test metrics for each frozen portfolio.
metrics_data = []

for name, ret in portfolio_returns.items():
    analysis = PortfolioAnalysis(
        returns=ret.values,
        risk_free=0.0,
        periods_per_year=252,
    )
    metrics = analysis.compute_summary_stats()

    metrics_data.append(
        {
            "portfolio": name,
            "annual_return": metrics.annual_return,
            "annual_volatility": metrics.annual_volatility,
            "sharpe": metrics.sharpe_ratio,
            "sortino": metrics.sortino_ratio,
            "max_drawdown": metrics.max_drawdown,
            "calmar": metrics.calmar_ratio,
        }
    )

metrics_df = pl.DataFrame(metrics_data).sort("sharpe", descending=True)
metrics_df

# %% [markdown]
# Every figure here is computed on the test window under a zero risk-free hurdle, from weights
# fitted before it and never adjusted afterwards. That makes the comparison fair between the
# allocations and still leaves it a description of one historical period: an allocation that leads
# this table was not selected for leading it, and nothing here estimates how it would rank on a
# different window.

# %% [markdown]
# The vectorized path restores frozen risk-parity targets every day at close-to-close
# returns. Two engine paths submit the same daily targets on actual test-period OHLCV.
# The zero-cost path isolates next-bar timing and engine mechanics; the second adds costs.


# %%
class DailyTargetWeightStrategy(Strategy):
    def __init__(self, target_weights: dict[str, float], allow_short: bool):
        self.target_weights = target_weights
        self.executor = TargetWeightExecutor(
            config=RebalanceConfig(
                min_trade_value=0.0,
                min_weight_change=0.0,
                allow_fractional=True,
                allow_short=allow_short,
            )
        )

    def on_data(self, timestamp, data, context, broker):
        targets = {asset: weight for asset, weight in self.target_weights.items() if asset in data}
        if targets:
            self.executor.execute(targets, data, broker)


# %%
# Prepare actual post-training OHLCV and the train-fitted risk-parity target.
bridge_name = "Risk Parity"
engine_target_weights = {
    symbol: float(results["risk_parity"]["weights"][symbol]) for symbol in SYMBOLS
}
allow_short_engine = any(weight < 0 for weight in engine_target_weights.values())
test_prices_long = (
    etf_data.filter(pl.col("timestamp") > pl.lit(TRAIN_END).str.to_date())
    .select(["timestamp", "symbol", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])
    .drop_nulls()
    .with_columns(pl.col("timestamp").cast(pl.Datetime("us")))
    .sort(["timestamp", "symbol"])
)

# %% [markdown]
# Run the daily-target engine under zero costs and under the declared 5 bp commission
# plus 5 bp slippage assumptions.


# %%
def run_daily_target_engine(*, cost_aware: bool, return_column: str) -> pl.DataFrame:
    """Run daily target rebalancing with or without explicit trading costs."""
    engine = Engine(
        feed=DataFeed(prices_df=test_prices_long),
        strategy=DailyTargetWeightStrategy(
            engine_target_weights,
            allow_short=allow_short_engine,
        ),
        config=BacktestConfig(
            initial_cash=100_000.0,
            execution_mode=ExecutionMode.NEXT_BAR,
            commission_type=CommissionType.PERCENTAGE if cost_aware else CommissionType.NONE,
            commission_rate=COMMISSION_RATE if cost_aware else 0.0,
            slippage_type=SlippageType.PERCENTAGE if cost_aware else SlippageType.NONE,
            slippage_rate=SLIPPAGE_RATE if cost_aware else 0.0,
            allow_short_selling=allow_short_engine,
        ),
    )
    return (
        engine.run()
        .to_daily_pnl()
        .select(
            pl.col("date").cast(pl.Datetime("us")).alias("timestamp"),
            pl.col("return_pct").alias(return_column),
        )
    )


# %% [markdown]
# The two engine runs differ only in whether costs are charged, so the difference between them is
# the cost and nothing else.


# %%
zero_cost_daily = run_daily_target_engine(
    cost_aware=False,
    return_column="zero_cost_return",
)
cost_aware_daily = run_daily_target_engine(
    cost_aware=True,
    return_column="cost_aware_return",
)

vectorized_daily = pl.DataFrame(
    {
        "timestamp": pl.Series(returns_df.index.to_list()).cast(pl.Datetime("us")),
        "vectorized_return": portfolio_returns[bridge_name].to_numpy(),
    }
)

# %%
# Compare all three paths only on common test dates.
bridge = (
    vectorized_daily.join(zero_cost_daily, on="timestamp", how="inner")
    .join(cost_aware_daily, on="timestamp", how="inner")
    .drop_nulls(["vectorized_return", "zero_cost_return", "cost_aware_return"])
    .sort("timestamp")
)

bridge_stats = {}
for label, column in {
    "Vectorized": "vectorized_return",
    "Zero-cost engine": "zero_cost_return",
    "Cost-aware engine": "cost_aware_return",
}.items():
    analysis = PortfolioAnalysis(
        returns=bridge[column],
        dates=bridge["timestamp"],
        risk_free=0.0,
        periods_per_year=252,
    )
    bridge_stats[label] = analysis.compute_summary_stats()

print("Execution bridge (train-only risk parity, daily target rebalancing):")
for label, stats in bridge_stats.items():
    print(
        f"  {label}: Sharpe={stats.sharpe_ratio:.3f}, "
        f"MaxDD={stats.max_drawdown:.2%}, Annual Return={stats.annual_return:.2%}"
    )

# %%
fig = go.Figure()
bridge_columns = {
    "Vectorized": "vectorized_return",
    "Zero-cost engine": "zero_cost_return",
    "Cost-aware engine": "cost_aware_return",
}
bridge_colors = {
    "Vectorized": COLORS["blue"],
    "Zero-cost engine": COLORS["amber"],
    "Cost-aware engine": COLORS["copper"],
}
for label, column in bridge_columns.items():
    fig.add_scatter(
        x=bridge["timestamp"],
        y=(1 + bridge[column]).cum_prod(),
        mode="lines",
        name=label,
        line=dict(color=bridge_colors[label]),
    )

annual_cost_gap = (
    bridge_stats["Zero-cost engine"].annual_return - bridge_stats["Cost-aware engine"].annual_return
)
print(f"Annualized return given up to commission and slippage: {annual_cost_gap:.2%}")

fig.update_layout(
    title="What the declared trading costs take out of the same allocation",
    xaxis_title="Date",
    yaxis_title="Growth of $1",
    height=440,
    legend=dict(bgcolor=COLORS["bg_light"]),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Three growth-of-one-dollar paths for the frozen risk-parity allocation: vectorized, zero-cost engine and cost-aware engine.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# Vectorized versus zero-cost differences reflect next-bar timing and engine mechanics.
# Zero-cost versus cost-aware differences isolate the declared costs under the same targets.

# %%
# Build the risk-return inputs before plotting the frontier-style comparison.
risk_return_data = []
for name, ret in portfolio_returns.items():
    ret_arr = ret.to_numpy(dtype=float)
    ann_ret = float(np.mean(ret_arr) * 252)
    ann_vol = float(np.std(ret_arr, ddof=1) * np.sqrt(252)) if len(ret_arr) > 1 else 0.0
    risk_return_data.append(
        {
            "name": name,
            "return": ann_ret * 100,
            "volatility": ann_vol * 100,
        }
    )

rr_df = pl.DataFrame(risk_return_data)

# %%
fig = go.Figure()
text_positions = {
    "Max Sharpe (MVO)": "top left",
    "Minimum Variance": "bottom left",
    "Risk Parity": "top center",
    "HRP": "top right",
    "Min CDaR": "bottom center",
    "Equal Weight": "top center",
}
for row in rr_df.iter_rows(named=True):
    name = row["name"]
    fig.add_scatter(
        x=[row["volatility"]],
        y=[row["return"]],
        text=[name],
        mode="markers+text",
        textposition=text_positions[name],
        cliponaxis=False,
        marker=dict(size=14, color=method_colors[name]),
        name=name,
        showlegend=False,
    )

x_min, x_max = rr_df["volatility"].min(), rr_df["volatility"].max()
y_min, y_max = rr_df["return"].min(), rr_df["return"].max()
fig.update_layout(
    title="Test-period return and volatility expose the optimizer trade-offs",
    xaxis_title="Annualized Volatility (%)",
    yaxis_title="Annualized Return (%)",
    height=500,
    xaxis_range=[x_min - 1.2, x_max + 2.2],
    yaxis_range=[y_min - 1.2, y_max + 2.0],
    margin=dict(l=75, r=85, t=80, b=65),
)

show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Scatter of the six allocations, test-period annualized volatility against annualized return, each point labelled with its method name.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# The test window for every allocation fitted on the training window. The ordering describes this
# split and was not used to retune anything.

# %% [markdown]
# ## 8. Drawdown Comparison


# %%
# Compute drawdowns
def compute_drawdown(returns: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
    cumulative = (1 + returns).cumprod()
    running_max = cumulative.expanding().max()
    return (cumulative - running_max) / running_max


drawdowns = pd.DataFrame({name: compute_drawdown(ret) for name, ret in portfolio_returns.items()})

fig = go.Figure()

for col in drawdowns.columns:
    fig.add_trace(
        go.Scatter(
            x=drawdowns.index,
            y=drawdowns[col] * 100,
            name=col,
            opacity=1.0 if col in {"Risk Parity", "Equal Weight"} else 0.55,
            line=dict(
                color=method_colors[col],
                width=3 if col in {"Risk Parity", "Equal Weight"} else 1.5,
            ),
        )
    )

max_drawdowns = drawdowns.min()
shallowest_name = str(max_drawdowns.idxmax())
deepest_name = str(max_drawdowns.idxmin())
returns_by_name = {
    row["portfolio"]: row["annual_return"] for row in metrics_df.iter_rows(named=True)
}
print(
    f"Shallowest fall: {shallowest_name} at {max_drawdowns[shallowest_name]:.1%}, "
    f"annualized return {returns_by_name[shallowest_name]:.2%}"
)
print(
    f"Deepest fall:    {deepest_name} at {max_drawdowns[deepest_name]:.1%}, "
    f"annualized return {returns_by_name[deepest_name]:.2%}"
)

fig.update_layout(
    title="Shallower drawdowns are bought with return, not gained for free",
    xaxis_title="Date",
    yaxis_title="Drawdown (%)",
    height=450,
    legend=dict(bgcolor=COLORS["bg_light"]),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Six underwater curves over the test window, one per allocation, all at or below zero, with risk parity and equal weight emphasized.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# Zero is each allocation's own running peak, so every curve is at or below it. The two lines
# printed above the chart pair each extreme with what it returned, which is the comparison to
# make: an allocation is not better for falling less if the reason it fell less is that it held
# less of what moved. Which end of that trade a holder wants is not a question the data answers.

# %% [markdown]
# ## 9. Risk Contribution Analysis
#
# An asset's **risk contribution** is $w_i(\Sigma w)_i / (w^\top \Sigma w)$: its weight times its
# covariance with the portfolio, over portfolio variance. Written that way the shares sum to one,
# which is what makes them readable as shares. The looser phrasing - weight times the derivative of
# variance, over variance - does not, because that derivative carries a factor of two and the shares
# would sum to two. Risk parity is defined by making these shares equal, so the chart below is that
# definition evaluated. The other allocations carry no such constraint, and where their capital
# concentrates their risk tends to concentrate further. How much further is not a fixed multiple:
# raising one weight changes that asset's covariance with the portfolio and the portfolio's total
# variance at the same time, and the two move the share in opposite directions.


# %%
def compute_risk_contribution(weights: dict[str, float], covariance: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
    """Compute percentage variance contributions under a supplied covariance model."""
    symbols = list(covariance.columns)
    w = pd.Series({symbol: float(weights[symbol]) for symbol in symbols}, dtype=float)
    cov = covariance.loc[symbols, symbols]
    port_var = float(w @ cov @ w)
    if port_var <= 0:
        return pd.Series(0.0, index=w.index)
    marginal = cov @ w
    return w * marginal / port_var


# %%
# Use the exact fitted Ledoit-Wolf covariance retained by each Riskfolio optimizer.
rc_methods = ["max_sharpe", "risk_parity", "min_variance"]
rc_table = pd.DataFrame(
    {
        results[m]["name"]: compute_risk_contribution(
            results[m]["weights"], results[m]["covariance"]
        )
        * 100
        for m in rc_methods
        if m in results
    }
)
rc_table = rc_table.reindex(SYMBOLS)
if not np.allclose(rc_table["Risk Parity"].sum(), 100.0, atol=1e-6):
    raise ValueError("Risk-parity contribution shares do not sum to 100%")

# %%
rc_values = rc_table.to_numpy().T
target_contribution = 100 / len(SYMBOLS)
rp_max_deviation = float(np.abs(rc_table["Risk Parity"].to_numpy() - target_contribution).max())
print(
    f"Risk parity's target share is {target_contribution:.2f}% per asset. Its largest deviation "
    f"from that target in sample is {rp_max_deviation:.1e} percentage points, which is the "
    "solver's tolerance rather than a residual imbalance."
)

fig = go.Figure(
    data=go.Heatmap(
        z=rc_values,
        x=[ETF_UNIVERSE[symbol] for symbol in SYMBOLS],
        y=list(rc_table.columns),
        colorscale=ml4t_palette(5)[::-1],
        zmin=0,
        zmax=float(np.nanmax(rc_values)),
        text=np.round(rc_values, 1),
        texttemplate="%{text:.1f}%",
        colorbar=dict(title="Variance contribution (%)"),
    )
)
fig.update_layout(
    title="Only one of these allocations equalizes risk rather than capital",
    xaxis_title="Asset",
    yaxis_title="Allocation method",
    height=390,
    margin=dict(l=135, b=120, r=40),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Heatmap of percentage variance contribution, one row per allocation method and one column per ETF, with the risk-parity row nearly uniform across the assets and the other two rows concentrated.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# Risk parity is checked against the same Ledoit-Wolf covariance that generated its
# weights. Max Sharpe and minimum variance expose how capital concentration can become
# even more concentrated in variance contribution.

# %% [markdown]
# A diagonal-covariance microcase provides a second implementation of equal-risk
# contribution: inverse-volatility weights must contribute exactly one third each.


# %%
oracle_covariance = pd.DataFrame(
    np.diag([0.04, 0.09, 0.16]),
    index=["A", "B", "C"],
    columns=["A", "B", "C"],
)
oracle_raw_weights = 1 / np.sqrt(np.diag(oracle_covariance))
oracle_raw_weights /= oracle_raw_weights.sum()
oracle_weights = dict(zip(oracle_covariance.columns, oracle_raw_weights, strict=True))
oracle_contributions = compute_risk_contribution(oracle_weights, oracle_covariance)
np.testing.assert_allclose(oracle_contributions.to_numpy(), np.repeat(1 / 3, 3), atol=1e-12)
print(f"Diagonal-covariance ERC oracle: max error={abs(oracle_contributions - 1 / 3).max():.2e}")

# %% [markdown]
# ## 10. Rolling Performance

# %%
# Compute 252-day rolling Sharpe with at least 126 observations.
window = 252
rolling_sharpe = pd.DataFrame()

for name, ret in portfolio_returns.items():
    rolling_mean = ret.rolling(window, min_periods=126).mean()
    rolling_std = ret.rolling(window, min_periods=126).std()
    rolling_sharpe[name] = (rolling_mean / rolling_std) * np.sqrt(252)

# Plot
fig = go.Figure()

for col in rolling_sharpe.columns:
    fig.add_trace(
        go.Scatter(
            x=rolling_sharpe.index,
            y=rolling_sharpe[col],
            name=col,
            opacity=1.0 if col in {"Risk Parity", "Equal Weight"} else 0.5,
            line=dict(
                color=method_colors[col],
                width=3 if col in {"Risk Parity", "Equal Weight"} else 1.5,
            ),
        )
    )

fig.add_hline(y=0, line_dash="dash", line_color=COLORS["neutral"], opacity=0.5)
fig.add_hline(y=1, line_dash="dot", line_color=COLORS["amber"], opacity=0.6)

fig.update_layout(
    title="No allocation stays ahead across the whole test window",
    xaxis_title="Date",
    yaxis_title="Rolling Sharpe ratio (252-day window)",
    height=450,
    legend=dict(bgcolor=COLORS["bg_light"]),
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Six rolling 252-day Sharpe ratios against date, crossing each other repeatedly, with reference lines at zero and one.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# Rolling estimates use a 252-trading-day window, a 126-observation minimum, daily
# returns, and square-root-of-252 annualization. They diagnose stability rather than
# provide another selection criterion.

# %%
test_sharpes = {row["portfolio"]: row["sharpe"] for row in metrics_df.iter_rows(named=True)}
test_drawdowns = {row["portfolio"]: row["max_drawdown"] for row in metrics_df.iter_rows(named=True)}
for name, sharpe in sorted(test_sharpes.items(), key=lambda item: -item[1]):
    print(f"{name:<22} Sharpe {sharpe:6.3f}   max drawdown {test_drawdowns[name]:7.1%}")
print(
    f"{'Risk parity, with costs':<22} Sharpe {bridge_stats['Cost-aware engine'].sharpe_ratio:6.3f}"
)

# %% [markdown]
# The last row is the one to read against the first. It is the same risk-parity allocation put
# through an engine that charges the declared commission and slippage, and the difference between
# the two is what implementing the allocation costs. Any ranking computed above it is a ranking of
# paper portfolios.

# %% [markdown] tags=["results"]
# ### What this run produced
#
# Three tables carry it, and they answer different questions. The weight comparison says where
# each method put capital; the effective-positions column beside it says how concentrated that is
# as a number rather than by eye. The performance table scores the six frozen allocations on the
# test window. The execution bridge at the end repeats one of them - risk parity - through an
# engine that charges the declared commission and slippage, so the gap between its last row and
# the paper figure above is what implementing that allocation costs.
#
# The ordering in the performance table describes this split. No allocation was retuned against
# it, and nothing here estimates how the same six would rank on a different train/test cut.

# %% [markdown]
# ## Key takeaways
#
# 1. **Dropping the expected-return estimate buys stability, not diversification.** Minimum
#    variance and minimum conditional drawdown use no return forecast and still concentrate harder
#    than maximum Sharpe does, because minimizing a risk number is as much a corner solution as
#    maximizing a ratio. What keeps an allocation spread out is a diversification requirement
#    inside the objective, which is what risk parity has and the minimizers do not.
# 2. **Shrinking the covariance is a bias-for-variance trade, made deliberately.** Ledoit-Wolf
#    pulls the sample matrix towards a structured target, so it is wrong in a known direction and
#    less wrong from one sample to the next. The reason to accept the bias is that the optimizer
#    inverts this matrix and inversion punishes variance far more than bias.
# 3. **Risk parity equalizes risk, not capital, and only against the covariance it was fitted
#    on.** The risk-contribution chart shows it holding within a small tolerance in sample; whether
#    the contributions stay equal out of sample is a different question and depends on whether the
#    correlations did.
# 4. **Targeting a drawdown in training does not deliver one in testing.** Minimum CDaR optimizes
#    the tail it was shown. Read its test drawdown against the others before concluding the
#    protection transferred.
# 5. **Effective positions makes concentration a number.** It is a better basis for an argument
#    than looking at a bar chart, and it is one of the few diagnostics here that needs no return
#    estimate at all.
# 6. **Report the cost-aware run beside the paper one.** Timing and fees are separate mechanisms
#    and both are declared; an allocation ranking computed without them is a ranking of portfolios
#    nobody can hold.
#
# ### Known limitations
#
# - One training window, one test window, one universe of eleven funds. A different split date
#   would refit every allocation and could reorder the table.
# - Weights are frozen across the test window and rebalanced daily to target. A real
#   implementation would re-estimate periodically, which adds turnover and a fresh estimation
#   error at each step.
# - Long-only and fully invested throughout, which is what keeps the maximum-Sharpe concentration
#   as mild as it appears.
# - The risk-free hurdle is zero, so every Sharpe here is a raw return-to-risk ratio rather than an
#   excess-return one.
#
# **Next:** [`04_kelly_criterion`](04_kelly_criterion.ipynb) turns from which assets to hold to how
# much of the portfolio to put at risk. Section 17.5 covers the Markowitz curse and the robust
# estimators used here.

```