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US关税与美国企业申请：回归研究

文章 arXiv papers · 作者: Ruiming Min
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总结

本研究评估关税政策是否与美国企业创办增加相关。研究使用 2018 至 2025 的县级企业申请数据，并通过线性回归分析新增申请与 US 对华关税、中国报复性关税之间的关系，同时控制通胀、联邦基金利率和政府支出等因素。

报告结果显示，US关税与企业申请之间存在统计显著的正相关。中国报复性关税的负系数更大，说明其可能大幅抵消这一正相关。报告还称，控制变量均产生显著的正向影响。因此，分析表明，当贸易伙伴作出回应时，单边关税带来的净收益有限。研究结果变量是企业申请，而非实际就业或制造业产出；描述所确立的是回归相关性，并未证明关税导致这些变化。这些发现可作为理解政策和经济状况的证据，但并未直接检验交易策略或资产市场反应。

核心观点

  • 本研究使用县级企业申请数据和线性回归，考察关税与企业创办之间的关系。
  • 报告结果显示，US对华关税与美国企业申请正相关。
  • 中国报复性关税的负系数更大，说明其可能抵消了大部分正相关。
  • 报告称，通胀、联邦基金利率和政府支出均产生显著的正向影响。
  • 衡量结果是企业申请，因此分析并未直接确立对就业或制造业产出的影响。

标签

统计学事件驱动美国市场
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# An Empirical Analysis of Tiff's Impact on American Business Formation


# An Empirical Analysis of Tiff's Impact on American Business Formation









This study examines whether the tariff policies delivered on promises to revitalize American manufacturing and create jobs. Using county-level business application data from 2018-2025, we analyze the relationship between tariff implementation and new business formation through linear regression analysis. Our findings reveal a statistically significant positive association between US tariffs on China and American business applications. However, when Chinese retaliatory tariffs are included in the analysis, their negative coefficient substantially exceeds the positive US tariff effect, suggesting that retaliatory measures largely offset the benefits of protectionist policies. Control variables including inflation rate, federal funds rate, and government spending show significant positive effects on business formation. These results indicate that while protectionist trade policies may stimulate domestic business formation, their effectiveness is significantly diminished by retaliatory responses from trading partners. The study provides evidence that unilateral tariff measures without diplomatic coordination produce limited net benefits, confirming that trade wars create scenarios where potential gains are neutralized by counteractions.

在遵守原作品许可的前提下，附作者信息全文展示。 许可协议: abstract CC0

此摘要由 Stratmill 研究智能体根据原文撰写，并非原文副本。