用于预测加密货币波动率的深度学习模型
文章 arXiv papers · 作者: Anika Tahsin Meem
总结
本研究将加密货币风险视为波动率预测问题,并对加密货币市场中二十个要素计算出的风险指标应用机器学习模型。研究比较卷积神经网络、长短期记忆模型、双向LSTM和门控循环单元,并提出一个旨在改进这些模型的新模型。讨论的资产包括比特币、以太坊和狗狗币。
文档报告了所提模型和现有模型的均方根误差值,其中所提方法的误差既低于也高于对比模型。不过,文档对此处的数据、预测期限、波动率构造方式、验证设计或新模型结构只作了少量说明。因此,无法根据这段描述独立评估所声称的改进;而且,预测准确度本身并不能证明波动率估计会改善交易决策或控制实盘市场风险。
核心观点
- 研究将加密货币风险作为波动率预测问题处理。
- 研究比较CNN、LSTM、双向LSTM和GRU模型在计算所得风险指标上的表现。
- 研究使用RMSE评估新提出的模型与现有方法。
- 摘要列出比特币、以太坊和狗狗币,但对数据和验证的说明有限。
- 预测误差结果本身不能证明实际交易或风险管理有所改善。
标签
全文
# A Deep Learning Approach to Predict the Fall [of Price] of Cryptocurrency Long Before its Actual Fall # A Deep Learning Approach to Predict the Fall [of Price] of Cryptocurrency Long Before its Actual Fall In modern times, the cryptocurrency market is one of the world's most rapidly rising financial markets. The cryptocurrency market is regarded to be more volatile and illiquid than traditional markets such as equities, foreign exchange, and commodities. The risk of this market creates an uncertain condition among the investors. The purpose of this research is to predict the magnitude of the risk factor of the cryptocurrency market. Risk factor is also called volatility. Our approach will assist people who invest in the cryptocurrency market by overcoming the problems and difficulties they experience. Our approach starts with calculating the risk factor of the cryptocurrency market from the existing parameters. In twenty elements of the cryptocurrency market, the risk factor has been predicted using different machine learning algorithms such as CNN, LSTM, BiLSTM, and GRU. All of the models have been applied to the calculated risk factor parameter. A new model has been developed to predict better than the existing models. Our proposed model gives the highest RMSE value of 1.3229 and the lowest RMSE value of 0.0089. Following our model, it will be easier for investors to trade in complicated and challenging financial assets like bitcoin, Ethereum, dogecoin, etc. Where the other existing models, the highest RMSE was 14.5092, and the lower was 0.02769. So, the proposed model performs much better than models with proper generalization. Using our approach, it will be easier for investors to trade in complicated and challenging financial assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin.
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